Official Short-term Investments Thread

[quick_scar]

I took the opportunity to grab a few more share for what I think is cheap. At least cheaper then my average share price.

Fingers Crossed.

[AudiPWR]

Just sold all my PHOT..

Got in @ .31 got out at $.67. Fun ride, 4 weeks for over 100%.

It was a small position, but hey an extra thousand bucks wont hurt eh?!

[woodywoodford]

Not a big update, but for those of us anxious for some NFK activity

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/africa-hydrocarbons-provides-an-operations-update-regarding-the-second-completion-attempt-at-bhn-1-well-in-tunisia-2014-03-21-8173133?reflink=MW_news_stmp

CALGARY, ALBERTA, Mar 21, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- Africa Hydrocarbons Inc. CA:NFK +7.69% ("AHI" or the "Company") today provided the following operational update regarding the Company's BHN-1 exploration well on the Bouhajla Permit in northeastern Tunisia.

The Company has finalized a re-completion program for the BHN-1 well on the Bouhajla permit in northeast Tunisia. The operation will involve using a workover rig to pull the production tubing from the wellbore and re-perforate the Abiod using a casing gun and deep penetrating charges. To that end, materials and equipment have been sourced, and the process of contracting the services of the workover rig is underway. Additional details regarding the re-completion operation will be provided prior to the operation being undertaken, currently expected to be in late April 2014.

The Company also advises that ETAP, the Tunisian state oil company, has agreed to a one year extension to the first exploration period of the Bouhajla Permit, until April 28, 2015.

[woodywoodford]

Do you guys normally bother with "sell in may and go away"? I've got a lot of various O&G (RRX, BXE, PPY, ATH) and I like them all, but can't decide if I should close out my positions for the summer or just try and dollar down when possible.

[GQBalla]

Newbie question: why sell in May?

[riander5]

Originally posted by Jry_79
Lots of chatter about Banro peeps! Looks like momentum traders might be jumping on board and they might let this stock run wild! I posted to watch this on March 4th...with gold prices moving up! Might be another 20% gain tomorrow and gaining all the way untill financials....sleeping giant is up and ready to rip shit up!!!

So did you hold it while the sleeping giant starts to rip down now?

[davidI]

Originally posted by GQBalla
Newbie question: why sell in May?

Historically there has been a seasonal decline in the summer months (May-October) so some people advise to sell in May, Go Away, and return to the markets in October.

Statistically I believe the markets have still been positive over the summer months (0.5% or something) while the Nov-Apr period has given the 7+% gains.

[woodywoodford]

^^ I'll add the effect can be magnified on Canadian O&G due to spring breakup. I've seen certain companies plummet almost 50% from May through August only to creep back up to highs once fall hits with no real catalysts to explain it other than seasonality.

[davidI]

Here's a good site I used to refer to for sector rotation:

http://www.equityclock.com/seasonality/

[Albertosaurus]

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/31/medical-marijuana-mining-penny-stocks_n_5062688.html

Anyone jumping in on the so called 'green' gold rush ?

[ercchry]

who else picked up some berry put options last week before Q4 announcements? :bigpimp:

[Feruk]

Bought some MVN today. Let's see where she goes.

[JaffX]

Originally posted by Feruk
Bought some MVN today. Let's see where she goes.

I've bought MVN a couple of months ago and it hasn't really gone anywhere :(

[fayzed]

bought some LSG, @.72 hoping for a bounce, i do feel it's a bit over sold.

[msommers]

Keeping my eyes on Cardinal Energy Ltd.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by JaffX
I've bought MVN a couple of months ago and it hasn't really gone anywhere :(
They've got 4 new well results coming up in Argentina. Likely one new one reached TD, and 2-3 will have been tested so they'll have a flow rate to announce. As well, they had intended to complete a facility upgrade there in Feb. Whether up or down, it'll move soon.

[DTTB_36]

I got in MVN a while ago. Feruk, what do you think they could hit. Its one of my go big or bust stocks.

[Feruk]

Because they're in Argentina, it's hard for me to judge the ultimate potential size of the plays. This is a buy and hold with mid term (~5 year) timeline for me. The pressure and flow data from their 10 day test on their first Sierra Blankas well tells me there is a real play here, just impossible to judge the size of the pool. If they also hit on the Vaca Muerta shale (two completions Q1), this thing goes a long way.

Honestly, their Canadian assets are probably worth ~$0.20/share, and I believe they missed on at least one of their two Q1 Ostracod wells, so the whole story hinges on good follow-up drills in Argentina,

[sabad66]

Originally posted by Albertosaurus
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/31/medical-marijuana-mining-penny-stocks_n_5062688.html

Anyone jumping in on the so called 'green' gold rush ?
Yep, bought me some FITX. They are building a huge greenhouse in Ontario. No approval yet from gov't but they seem to think it will be a trivial process. I think it will pop if they get approval.

I am pissed i missed the boat for PHOT. I was looking at buying them in the .20s but my unregistered account registration was taking too long (fkin questrade). Might still buy them even in the .60s. They posted some good numbers in their last NR.

[AudiPWR]

Feruk,

Do you post on stockhouse?

I think we are invested in a lot of the same plays..

Also... CNE - Just doesn't stop.. I love this company.

TBUFF - Stumbled across this a few weeks ago.. Looks very undervalued and could be a good long term play.

[Feruk]

Used to post a lot on Stockhouse (as Feruk) but stopped for the most part. Got jaded when I sold a couple stocks and warned people about them only to get flamed out. Those people have lost ~90% of their money now.

I'm gonna look at CNE closer, the flowing bbl metrics look great.

[Leekiwwi]

AIF looking very strong lately with more upside. Don't expect crazy gains though.

[asp integra]

bought into Spartan energy (SPE TSXV) yesterday, hoping to see some nice gains on it

[AudiPWR]

Originally posted by asp integra
bought into Spartan energy (SPE TSXV) yesterday, hoping to see some nice gains on it

Wow this Spartan Energy exploded! I had them about 3 years ago and got in around $0.24 and out around $.30..Sold, took them off my radar and never looked at them again until now.. Damn!! Should of held on haha.

[JaffX]

I bought SPE before the merger. I'm getting some good gains and I'm still continuing to hold :)

[AudiPWR]

What are everyones thoughts on CSIQ right now?

It is down quite a lot over the past 2 months. Been contemplating filling a very large position here. Stock has lots of growth, and is one of the better performing ones in the sector.

[Feruk]

Honestly CSIQ's probably worth $15 IMO, and that's at 15X forward earnings and somewhat ignoring their high debt. At $29 no thanks. Just broke through base at $30 so I bet it goes a way.

[woodywoodford]

Well today kinda blows

[Superman403]

Just a heads up tip.

Check out Poet Technologies. PTK (or POETF).

[sabad66]

Originally posted by sabad66

I am pissed i missed the boat for PHOT. I was looking at buying them in the .20s but my unregistered account registration was taking too long (fkin questrade). Might still buy them even in the .60s. They posted some good numbers in their last NR.
Well, glad I pussied out and didn't do this lol.

I guess the SEC suspended (not haulted) PHOT due to some shady shit. Pretty much worthless now.

[FinLit]

Mutual funds and real estate are always hot spot for investment but before doing that financial planning is must.:burnout:

[AudiPWR]

Originally posted by Superman403
Just a heads up tip.

Check out Poet Technologies. PTK (or POETF).

Thanks for this! Picked up 5k shares of this and up 30% already!

[rx7_turbo2]

Any thoughts on Amaya Gaming AYA TSXV?

It's taken a beating lately, thinking it might be a good opportunity to hop in, unless I'm missing the obvious about why it's down.

[GotRice?]

Originally posted by AudiPWR


Thanks for this! Picked up 5k shares of this and up 30% already!

Same here, just not as many shares.

[woodywoodford]

Damnit, I didn't buy cause I don't know supermans rep around here lol. My bad.

[AudiPWR]

Loving this run with PTK.V! Thanks Superman!

CNE.TO is looking like a big NR will be coming out, just hit a 52W high.

OTS.V - Buddy told me to buy this back in October.. Finally starting to see some action. Some say this will be a 3-4 bagger this year at this price.

[riander5]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
Damnit, I didn't buy cause I don't know supermans rep around here lol. My bad.

Whats his rep? I cant seem to find any posts by him other than that last one.

[asp integra]

Originally posted by asp integra
bought into Spartan energy (SPE TSXV) yesterday, hoping to see some nice gains on it

I bought in at 3.45 and as of today im up to 4.23, keep going SPE!

[riander5]

Originally posted by AudiPWR


Wow this Spartan Energy exploded! I had them about 3 years ago and got in around $0.24 and out around $.30..Sold, took them off my radar and never looked at them again until now.. Damn!! Should of held on haha.

They exploded due to simply a name change?? Wtf!

[AudiPWR]

Anybody have any good buys today?

I've got a decent chunk of change sitting around from selling my BMO..

Haven't decided where to put it yet, but wanted to get out of the banks for a little while here.

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by riander5


They exploded due to simply a name change?? Wtf!

I don't know, but I'm not convinced they'll hold the gains - sold this morning at 4.30 for a nice 25% in 10ish days

[Superman403]

Originally posted by riander5


Whats his rep? I cant seem to find any posts by him other than that last one.

Sorry. I've been a watcher of this board, but never really posted. Thought I'd share this good pick.

I've made some huge gains with PTK (bought under $1, and slowly added on down days, like yesterday).

Do your own due diligence, but this company is changing from research into production/ partnerships / licensing in the near term, and should jump.

-20% yesterday, 22% today..
Lots of volume, getting attention.
Have a strong stomach.

Anyways, some other stocks that have done well for me lately (warning: very risky):
OTS.V
RPC.V
CUR
RMTI

Other stocks that are more stable because they have no debt, good cashflow:
SVC.V
LOY.V
OTC.V
RKN.V

[AudiPWR]

Originally posted by Superman403


Sorry. I've been a watcher of this board, but never really posted. Thought I'd share this good pick.

I've made some huge gains with PTK (bought under $1, and slowly added on down days, like yesterday).

Do your own due diligence, but this company is changing from research into production/ partnerships / licensing in the near term, and should jump.

-20% yesterday, 22% today..
Lots of volume, getting attention.
Have a strong stomach.

Anyways, some other stocks that have done well for me lately (warning: very risky):
OTS.V
RPC.V
CUR
RMTI

Other stocks that are more stable because they have no debt, good cashflow:
SVC.V
LOY.V
OTC.V
RKN.V

I've been in OTS.V since $0.14.. Loving this ride, geophysist tipped me on it and I'm happy with my gains so far.. Loaded up another boat load of PTK this morning, saw a nice 28% gain on those shares alone.

I'll check your others out.

Some other risky ones I've been playing:

PTA.V --> My top pick for the year
SLTD --> Another top pick for me, I think this will be a 10 bagger one day for sure.
E.TO
CDH.TO
INA.V
PNP.TO
TBUFF

[sabad66]

News from nfk/dxe today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/africa-hydrocarbons-provides-details-completion-120000330.html

One more month.. Almost there! Anyone stick around? Lol

[ExtraSlow]

I have to admit, I have a hard time investing in a lot of these speculative companies. It really troubles me when I try to look at P/E and it's "-" because the company has zero earnings. Or a negative 2000% profit margin.
I'm sure some of those companies will do well eventually, but so many of them will fail.

I do like the looks of PTA.V though. they actually have some cash flow and production, they appear to be in a reasonable debt position. the reserves have been audited. That's a story i can understand.
That being said, I'm an oil and gas guy, so that's always the kind of company I'm likely to understand.

Since this appears to be the place to post Brags, BDI has been a horse for me this year. Bought into that at $19.47 a little over a year ago, it's been paying me ~4% to wait, and it's returned 80% this year. This may be one of my "hold forever" stocks.

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I have to admit, I have a hard time investing in a lot of these speculative companies. It really troubles me when I try to look at P/E and it's "-" because the company has zero earnings. Or a negative 2000% profit margin.
I'm sure some of those companies will do well eventually, but so many of them will fail.

I do like the looks of PTA.V though. they actually have some cash flow and production, they appear to be in a reasonable debt position. the reserves have been audited. That's a story i can understand.
That being said, I'm an oil and gas guy, so that's always the kind of company I'm likely to understand.

Since this appears to be the place to post Brags, BDI has been a horse for me this year. Bought into that at $19.47 a little over a year ago, it's been paying me ~4% to wait, and it's returned 80% this year. This may be one of my "hold forever" stocks.

I agree, the two things that have stung me are (a) penny stocks and (b) sectors I don't know (ie. tech, pharma, even SPY). Modest brag here, but my O&G portfolio's up 40% YTD and on much lower risk companies than penny's (and less effort too). I'll stick with what I know :D

My short/mid-term thesis - AECO producers! They're gonna rake it in come this time next year. Think PPY, BXE, BIR...

[ExtraSlow]

BXE is going to do very well in the next two years.

[busdepot]

Originally posted by sabad66
News from nfk/dxe today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/africa-hydrocarbons-provides-details-completion-120000330.html

One more month.. Almost there! Anyone stick around? Lol

Yeah, still holding on. Kind of lost interest though. Also watching HN right now on TSXV. Might as well see what happens right?

[themack89]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
I'll stick with what I know :D

This is also how Buffett did so well.

[khanan]

Just a question, how much do most of you have in stock holdings? I'm still fairly new to all this (18), I did buy a few Air Canada shares a few weeks back when they dipped. And I'm looking to buy more shares each month. (I put in about 100-300 roughly). So just wondering, thanks.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by khanan
Just a question, how much do most of you have in stock holdings? I'm still fairly new to all this (18), I did buy a few Air Canada shares a few weeks back when they dipped. And I'm looking to buy more shares each month. (I put in about 100-300 roughly). So just wondering, thanks.
If you're buying $300 worth of shares and paying $10 commission, right there you've lost 3%. Average stock will return ~6% to 8%/year; WAY too expensive. When you go to sell, IB takes another 3% and has eaten all your profit. IMO you shouldn't invest in individual stocks until your account is at least $50K. Wait until you have ~$4K+ cash (in HISA?) and buy an ETF all at once instead. The $10 at $4K is only 0.25 cost%. You don't make money by paying everybody else.

[ExtraSlow]

Agreed At 18 years old, you likely shouldn't be investing in individual stocks.

Put your money in Tangerine (fomerly ING) and save for your house/car/travel etc.

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Put your money in Tangerine (fomerly ING) and save for your house/car/travel etc.

I respectfully but completely disagree on this part... at 18 (or anything under 25, really) you've got 40+ years of employment ahead of you. That's a huge low-risk asset (human capital) that begs to be offset by high equity exposure. Basic asset management/behavioral finance right there. From a pure finance standpoint, the only thing a kid that age should keep in savings are an emergency fund, his school budget if needed, and the downpayment once he's started the house hunt.

I'd recommend never transacting on less than $1000 (to avoid getting eaten up on commissions), and start with safer equities like market ETF's while you build up an asset base.

Edit: this slipped my mind, but there's ways to buy ETF's for free. Questrade for example offers free ETF purchases, but you pay regular commission to sell. In that case you could do the smaller monthly contributions no problem.

[riander5]

Thanks for responding, and posting other picks. Wasnt questioning your first pick you shared (obviously a good one) was just curious what else you had shared or how you had a rep where other members dropped thousands on a stock with no additional info.

Thanks again!


Originally posted by Superman403


Sorry. I've been a watcher of this board, but never really posted. Thought I'd share this good pick.

I've made some huge gains with PTK (bought under $1, and slowly added on down days, like yesterday).

Do your own due diligence, but this company is changing from research into production/ partnerships / licensing in the near term, and should jump.

-20% yesterday, 22% today..
Lots of volume, getting attention.
Have a strong stomach.

Anyways, some other stocks that have done well for me lately (warning: very risky):
OTS.V
RPC.V
CUR
RMTI

Other stocks that are more stable because they have no debt, good cashflow:
SVC.V
LOY.V
OTC.V
RKN.V

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by woodywoodford


I respectfully but completely disagree on this part...
I know what you are saying, but you also have to look at the persons tolerance to losses. I know for me, when I was 18, if I lost $1000 on an investment, I would have slit my wrists. I wasn't saving for retirement, every dollar I saved had a short time horizon, and "normal market fluctuations" could have meant I wasn't able to buy my first home, pay for my wedding, buy a car, whatever.

If your time horizon is longer, then I agree, at a young age you can tolerate much more risk. just depends what you are saving for.

I'm also a big proponent of keeping your finances simple. At that age, you have enough uncertainty about your life situation, that I don't think you need mroe uncertainty with your money.

[themack89]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I'm also a big proponent of keeping your finances simple. At that age, you have enough uncertainty about your life situation, that I don't think you need mroe uncertainty with your money.

I think the general philosophy is that you got time to fix it if you are that young.

I think a typical middle age portfolio is 80/20 conservative/spec... If a lot younger, maybe that could be reversed.

The way I look at it is how long would it take me to earn X investment back from my job. If it's like a month, then I am more likely to put it into a big spec play. Everyone has their tolerances though, like you said.

[Leekiwwi]

Originally posted by Rarasaurus
Seems as previously posted IBG is on the rise. I cant find news of why though....

From $0.88 to $2.30 since this stock was posted with much more room to grow!

[khanan]

Thanks everyone, i wil look into etfs. And yes they are free from the platform that i use to trade. Thanks again for the advice.

[davidI]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Agreed At 18 years old, you likely shouldn't be investing in individual stocks.


I'm happy I started trading young. Sure I made some mistakes and lost some money but I learned from those mistakes and make more now. You can't just jump into trading at an old age and expect to make good decisions.

Small losses when you're young and inexperienced can save you from big losses later on.

[quick_scar]

Originally posted by davidI


I'm happy I started trading young. Sure I made some mistakes and lost some money but I learned from those mistakes and make more now. You can't just jump into trading at an old age and expect to make good decisions.

Small losses when you're young and inexperienced can save you from big losses later on.

This!! I have learnt so much over the short time I have been trading. Sure I have lost a couple grand, but its only a couple grand. Not the end of the world and I can easily make that back in my lifetime. Some of you guys lose that in seconds.

[Manhattan]

Which of these should I go with? TCK, NML, TBE...

Any other suggestions for junior oil with good financials and potential to be bought out would be appreciated.

[themack89]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Which of these should I go with? TCK, NML, TBE...

Any other suggestions for junior oil with good financials and potential to be bought out would be appreciated.

I opened a long in TCK when it was in its 21's. Copper is relatively cheap is the only reason I did it. And looove that high beta baby! :burnout:

I think its still relatively decent here at 22.50.

[AudiPWR]

Fuuuuuuuuckkkkk..

Had a huge position in LQDT, took a 30% hit this morning after earnings release.. Not looking good at all.

[woodywoodford]

Ouch...suddenly the pullback on PPY/BIR I was gonna bitch about doesn't seem so bad.

Brutal :(


Edit/followup:
How do you guys figure out if a stock is being manipulated by traders? I suspect PPY might be as they had a huge run recently, have earnings out next week, and are up a couple percent at open, then down a few, then back in the positive and all over the place. I can't help but think traders are trying to bid the price down in order to get in at a better spot but not sure what signs to look for to prove it. Or whether that would warrant closing the position out anyway.

[themack89]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
Ouch...suddenly the pullback on PPY/BIR I was gonna bitch about doesn't seem so bad.

Brutal :(


Edit/followup:
How do you guys figure out if a stock is being manipulated by traders? I suspect PPY might be as they had a huge run recently, have earnings out next week, and are up a couple percent at open, then down a few, then back in the positive and all over the place. I can't help but think traders are trying to bid the price down in order to get in at a better spot but not sure what signs to look for to prove it. Or whether that would warrant closing the position out anyway.

You'd need access to Level II quotes and Time & Sales data. Even then, good luck figuring it out. People who are doing that stuff are smarter than your average Joe.

[icky2unk]

Energy sector today </3

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by icky2unk
Energy sector today &lt;/3

Understatement of the year right there...and I was legitimately planning on emptying all my positions after getting back from lunch. Last time I have that "one more drink" :banghead:

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by woodywoodford


Understatement of the year right there...and I was legitimately planning on emptying all my positions after getting back from lunch. Last time I have that &quot;one more drink&quot; :banghead:

Not looking much better today unfortunately.

Heres to next week!

[woodywoodford]

I'm a little nervous though, energy's the performer of the year and the bubbles always grow where nobody's talking about. Which in this case is energy.....is this a correction or will it reverse???

[quick_scar]

Can anyone speculate on what might have happened with UBNT today?

https://www.google.ca/finance?q=ubnt&ei=ugdtU-jQO8OtiALpi4GoAQ

Financials released yesterday, another record quarter, beat expectations, yet 25% drop in share price and huge quantities being traded today. (over 6 mill vs. 1.5 mill average)

People not liking that they are increasing R&D??

[mr2mike]

Excellent buy in day.
Market oversold in Energy, looks like it's already done the correction but still some gains to be had.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[max_boost]

It's May! Sell in May and go away! :rofl:

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I am not playing the waiting game on them either, I bailed and took the losses.


Not a bad plan. My biggest mistake when I gambled on some risky penny stocks was not using stops.

By bailing you've imposed a stop on yourself.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[woodywoodford]

I vaguely remember QTrade emailing me that TSX no longer supports stop orders? Is this true?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
I vaguely remember QTrade emailing me that TSX no longer supports stop orders? Is this true?


Questrade no longer supports stop and trailing stop orders on Canadian markets.

We would like to clarify that the stop and trailing stop orders on Canadian markets are disabled on all Questrade trading platforms. This is part of our initiative to maintain a fair and orderly market – US order functionality is unaffected. Stop limit and trailing stop limit orders will still be accepted.

We would like to correct the previous statement by stating that the removal of this order type was not a result of an IIROC mandate.

i dont get it... but i also never used them

[sabad66]

Originally posted by Inzane


Not a bad plan. My biggest mistake when I gambled on some risky penny stocks was not using stops.

By bailing you've imposed a stop on yourself.
Not a big fan of using stops on low float penny stocks... easy for the big guys to manipulate price and trigger everyone's stops for a domino effect. Been burned by it before and won't do it again.

[themack89]

Yellen won't let the market crash!

[khanan]

Originally posted by themack89
Yellen won't let the market crash!

Fingers crossed.

Does anyone know why PXX slipped?

[davidI]

Originally posted by sabad66

Not a big fan of using stops on low float penny stocks... easy for the big guys to manipulate price and trigger everyone's stops for a domino effect. Been burned by it before and won't do it again.

Yep, happened to me on BIM as well.

[borN]

TBE is unfortunately down 13% this morning. I know some of you guys hold it, but in my opinion there are dozens of better companies out there. It's lost a lot of market traction over the last half year even with a strong commodity market. Having a high risk asset base that has volatile declines while trying to run a sustainable dividend company is not typically a formula for profit...

[Feruk]

Yeah I'm rethinking holding TBE... THIRD stumble in 18 months. WTF? Then comments about how HZ wells decline less than vertical wells? That's scary that someone actually believes that.

[Manhattan]

Ouch TBE down 20% now.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by borN
TBE is unfortunately down 13% this morning. I know some of you guys hold it, but in my opinion there are dozens of better companies out there. It's lost a lot of market traction over the last half year even with a strong commodity market. Having a high risk asset base that has volatile declines while trying to run a sustainable dividend company is not typically a formula for profit...

It was trading at 52 week highs 3 weeks ago.

If they had executed on their assets they would still be there today. The name is tarnished but I don't agree the news is a 20% hit. New blood in the game and a new start. We'll see what happens here.

Dividend sustained through 2014 and shifting focus. There are less risky plays out there but it's all relative to what you give up.

If you aren't selling you are just taking in a dividend and a paper loss. It's a matter of what your investment horizon is. If you need to exit in the near future TBE is not a good place to be but if you are just looking to collect a monthly cheque. Not a bad gig.

https://rbcnew.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/71fee11a-d496-4b35-85a0-3093d2c50074.pdf

RBC Report for those interested

[borN]

Originally posted by icky2unk


It was trading at 52 week highs 3 weeks ago.

If they had executed on their assets they would still be there today. The name is tarnished but I don't agree the news is a 20% hit. New blood in the game and a new start. We'll see what happens here.

Dividend sustained through 2014 and shifting focus. There are less risky plays out there but it's all relative to what you give up.

If you aren't selling you are just taking in a dividend and a paper loss. It's a matter of what your investment horizon is. If you need to exit in the near future TBE is not a good place to be but if you are just looking to collect a monthly cheque. Not a bad gig.

https://rbcnew.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/71fee11a-d496-4b35-85a0-3093d2c50074.pdf

RBC Report for those interested

There were many companies trading at its 52 week high over the last month, primarily due to strong commodities and better market sentiment relative to the last few years. But investors needs to ask the question, why would you own TBE when there are companies that offer a similar (or in some instances a better) yield, have less risky assets, much lower corporate declines, have the option to pursue growth, and have not had operational hiccups in the last few years? As you outlined, it's all relative...so if it were me, I think there are better companies to invest in for the short or long term. To each there own though.

[Feruk]

Another thing I liked about TBE was commitment to balance sheet over dividend. For those who don't know, Rob Wollman and Dave Middleton are both ex-VPs at Penn West; both laid off (somewhat unfairly compared to those who stayed IMO) in first round. Very smart guys (especially Middleton), but I don't know if the right ones for this company. As soon as I see a commitment to the dividend over balance sheet, I will be selling all my shares.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by borN


There were many companies trading at its 52 week high over the last month, primarily due to strong commodities and better market sentiment relative to the last few years. But investors needs to ask the question, why would you own TBE when there are companies that offer a similar (or in some instances a better) yield, have less risky assets, much lower corporate declines, have the option to pursue growth, and have not had operational hiccups in the last few years? As you outlined, it's all relative...so if it were me, I think there are better companies to invest in for the short or long term. To each there own though.

You are looking at a 9% yield at todays price for a company who has a payout ratio of ~95%. As the shift in focus changes that should swing to ~90%. The dividend is fairly riskless in this company as they have 0 intention to cut and have always been about protecting that dividend. I don't know many companies who are maintaining <100% dividend payout ratios with a 9% dividend and having much success. Of course there are companies with lower declines and arguably better assets but that has been factored into the wack in todays price.

Anyone who scooped up last year at this time at 1.60 would be 25% including dividend. At todays price you are going to yield 9% on the dividend and I would fully expect a capital gain on that as well.

It's easy to think short term and the +/- but over a 5 year period I think TBE has a very attractive CAGR. As it stands today I think the opportunity to make a good return on TBE is still there.

[ExtraSlow]

I don't think TBE or any of the high dividend payers are really appropriate for the short term investments thread. your opportunity for capital appreciation is much lower than the non or low dividend payers.

FRU and WCP are my favourite of the dividend group, and IMO, less risky than TBE.

If you want a bit of a balance between dividend and opportunity for capital appreciation, TOG is a nice choice. Lots of growth potential, strong balance sheet, very well regarded management team. They own land right beside CPG's recent Torquay aquisition, along with some very interesting southrn alberta stuff, and boring old cardium, which is nicely profitable.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I don't think TBE or any of the high dividend payers are really appropriate for the short term investments thread. your opportunity for capital appreciation is much lower than the non or low dividend payers.

FRU and WCP are my favourite of the dividend group, and IMO, less risky than TBE.

If you want a bit of a balance between dividend and opportunity for capital appreciation, TOG is a nice choice. Lots of growth potential, strong balance sheet, very well regarded management team. They own land right beside CPG's recent Torquay aquisition, along with some very interesting southrn alberta stuff, and boring old cardium, which is nicely profitable.

I'd agree but it seems the short term has become the general investing thread.

Nonetheless I own WCP and agree it is a great pickup going forward.

I'd also suggest RE for heavy oil exposure and RRX. Both are great performers this year.

[borN]

Originally posted by icky2unk


You are looking at a 9% yield at todays price for a company who has a payout ratio of ~95%. As the shift in focus changes that should swing to ~90%. The dividend is fairly riskless in this company as they have 0 intention to cut and have always been about protecting that dividend. I don't know many companies who are maintaining &lt;100% dividend payout ratios with a 9% dividend and having much success. Of course there are companies with lower declines and arguably better assets but that has been factored into the wack in todays price.

Anyone who scooped up last year at this time at 1.60 would be 25% including dividend. At todays price you are going to yield 9% on the dividend and I would fully expect a capital gain on that as well.

It's easy to think short term and the +/- but over a 5 year period I think TBE has a very attractive CAGR. As it stands today I think the opportunity to make a good return on TBE is still there.

All valid points, however this stock is one that just had, as Feruk pointed out, two hiccups in the last 18 months. Both related to operational issues which introduces discussions on their asset quality. To an investor, this is not a good topic, especially as a dividend company. Theoretically, as long as they're able to be sustainable whilst paying a dividend, it should be fine, but the market doesn't see it that way (as shown) and can turn 180 degrees once risk is entered into the equation.

There are (IMO) much better names to own that offer a little less yield but offer a much safer ship with optionality for growth. WCP, SGY, BNE, CPG, etc (three of these are under a 100% total payout ratio). If you're talking about 5 year projections, TBE has a 2.3x 2P FDC/Forward Capex ratio compared to an 8.3 year RLI (it's also a tell tale sign when your cashflow recycle ratio is under 1.0x). This means that inventory long term is questionable, and the company will probably have to grow through acquisitions. It's peers also typically have a much long reserve life and generate a much higher cash recycle ratio. I know reserve numbers are imperfect, but it gives us a general idea of where the company stands - definitely not the greatest numbers...

Anyways, I could do all the analysis I want and still be wrong. I hope your investment in TBE works out, but I'll be putting my money on other horses. Fully agree with your RE and RRX though - great names to own (I would throw a lot of money at RE right now, even though it's ran since late last year).

[woodywoodford]

I've thought about TBE on a few occasions but never been able to make the jump, I'm not an instinctual guy or whatever but it juts doesn't feel like the kind of company that's gonna do anything.

SGY on the other hand...made a quick penny on them this year and got out in the low 7's. I'm out for the summer and might revisit around Aug/Sep but honestly, div payers just don't excite me much.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by borN


All valid points, however this stock is one that just had, as Feruk pointed out, two hiccups in the last 18 months. Both related to operational issues which introduces discussions on their asset...

Oh I totally agree that it has it's issues but I'm just suggesting it can play out very favorably. Nonetheless as mentioned there are a ton of good options to buy right now and a good mixture of any would probably make any investor pretty happy!

GLTA

[GotRice?]

Originally posted by Feruk
Used to post a lot on Stockhouse (as Feruk) but stopped for the most part. Got jaded when I sold a couple stocks and warned people about them only to get flamed out. Those people have lost ~90% of their money now.

I'm gonna look at CNE closer, the flowing bbl metrics look great.

I just recently checked out the bullboards and what a shit show it is. Was entertaining at first but it just turned into a pissing match between a couple posters.

[Feruk]

Anyone follow Strategic Oil & Gas (ticker: SOG). Seems like an interesting set of assets.

[troyl]

Do you have any shares Feruk? I will have to do a little more DD... Insiders own 46% of the shares out. Good to see one of the Riddell's as a director, and that Claugus gentleman who's fund hold's a whack of shares. Cashed up with that recent PP at 0.50 with strong insider participation..

Might have to dabble...

[borN]

As you mentioned, own a large portion of the company. Thomas Claugus, who runs GMT Capital out of the US, loves the asset base and decided to invest a huge portion of money in the company.

SOG's been in the penalty box over the last year because of operational issues and missing guidance quarter over quarter. A lot of people like their asset base, and they've proven that the Muskeg Stack has tons of potential, but the company has pretty high op costs from Bistcho and Cameron Hills and from trucking expenses. Because they've had to devote a lot of their capital budget on infrastructure (specifically pipelines connecting Steen River to sales), they've missed production and cash flow targets and have had a ton of pushbacks in the market. It doesn't help that they've also had two lightning strikes last year which shut down production for some time.

That said, they recently completed their sales pipeline and forecast that costs should come down substantially. Now that they have oil consistently being sold, they'll be able to bring their prolific Muskeg Stack wells online and hopefully start showing signs of production and cash flow growth.

Overall and IMO, Juniors are always going to have difficulties if their core asset base is in northern Alberta. Infrastructure and weather are always huge costly problems to have when you're up there. PRY is the most recent Junior to fall from grace in the north. SOG, although fallen, is lucky to have a strong shareholder backing it up and an asset base with lots of potential. They spent a lot of time and money on infrastructure... but now that it's mostly completed, it could be the bottom for the story. I think they need to prove that they're now A) operationally sound (no delays, problems), B) management can now conservatively forecast growth and meet/beat estimates consistently, and C) efficient with costs needing to come down.

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by rx7_turbo2
Any thoughts on Amaya Gaming AYA TSXV?

It's taken a beating lately, thinking it might be a good opportunity to hop in, unless I'm missing the obvious about why it's down.

Didn't get much love when I posted this lol.

Trading around or below $6 when I asked, up over $9 today.

Feeling pretty good. I'll take some profits, but I still think it has room to grow, any thoughts?

[Red@8]

Not sure if anyone is still holding but FAP has been on a nice little run here the past few weeks or so.

[troyl]

Anyone manage to grab any ipo shares of Prairiesky? Should be interesting to watch it trade today...