Official Short-term Investments Thread

[max_boost]

So that means the order didn't go through yet but will once the market opens up. If things do bounce back tomorrow, the opening price (your market purchase price) 'could' be a lot higher than the closing price of today, just to let you know :D

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Just to be clear, I have no problems holding any non-leveraged ETF for the "long term."
However, these 2x and 3x ETFs, in my opinion, aren't suitable for anything but shorter term, less than 30 day, traders.

There are some good articles about leveraged ETF's out there. Such as Leveraged ETFs - The Value Destruction Trap (http://seekingalpha.com/article/31195-leveraged-etfs-a-value-destruction-trap)


The key to leveraged ETF I think is timing. Like the article you posted suggested, if you pick the right year it can work even for long term but if you pick the wrong year you will and may be in the red even if the market was to recover back fully.

Now my personal view on this is, ETF is definately not good if you only have one position or one entry for that matter. No one can pick the bottom, so say if I was to buy a oil leveraged ETF today with oil price at 42 bucks, if it dips to 35 dollars and quickly recovers back to 42, I would not regain what I had lose. So how to counter this? simple. Cost average. Notice with Horizon BetaPro 's website in the smaller fine prints, it says investor should rebalance their profolios from time to time meaning.

as far as oil price is concern, at 42 dollars now, I think we are more near the bottom than we are on the top, so if you time it right, spread out a few position like at 40, 30 and 20, I bet a few years from now you will be sitting pretty.

Yes leverage ETF should be viewed carefully but try not to overextend it, its simply is just a vehicle that magnifys gains and losses, no different that a regular stock why? If I buy a 10 dollar stock and it dips to 5 dollar, I lost 50%, but when the stock recovers 50% I will only regain my value back to 7.5, so it will take be another 50% in order to recoup my losses completely. 2xETF is doubles on top of that.

So whos ready to jump in HOU when oil reaches 40 or below :)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
i knew oil was gonna go below 50 again, but wow ...$43?

could it hit $35?

as much as oil is at an attractive price, dont forget this financial mess and deleverging crsis could take months if not a year or two to play out. Meaning, if you want to invest in oil, fund or what ever, you should not do any buy and hold just yet.

In fact, oil is oversold and the drop from its peak was fast and furious, the moment it finds its bottom (similarily when DOW hit under 8000 the 1st time, it rebounded significantly)

so I suspect once oil finds its near term footing, who knows 40? 35? 30? it will bounce and the initial rally could be a big one. Then the sell off would continues and I believe oil will trade side ways for quite some time.

I would place my best at 40, 30 and 20 hack if it hits 10 I would push it all in on top of what I already set a side plus some.
When oil bounces back up say to its 50 day moving average currently at around 60-70 on the daily chart. I would start winding if not all of my position. I'm not suggesting once you buy at 40, 30 and 20 intervals and just wait for 6 months. Because say if you did spread out your buys and price went from 20 to 30, it may be wise to unwind your position that had profit. Because price could retest if not dip lower and you need to cash to keep buying in on the lows.

Anyhow just get ready, an opporunity of a life time here.

as an example, I was watching bank of american when it dip to 20 bucks just not long ago, and I could not believe just how many times it tested that price and shot up 15-25%, before falling further now to 10 dollars. Of course it then went from 10 to 15. so had you spread out your dough and bought at 10, you would have sold it between 14-15 for a 50% profit and now have the cash to wait to get back in at 10. of course you better at least have at least one more position left shall it hit 5.

Im not suggesting to buy BAC, just as an example that this will be the norm for trading and not buy at 10 and wait till it goes back to 40, because it wont.

you will ask, then what happens if BAC never goes back to 20 and I was stuck at 20. See, that is why you only pick investment that you know will eventually recover fully, such as oil, because the world cant live without it, the world fight over it. And when hyperinflation begins because of the mass trillions the world is pumping into market, oil isnt going to stay double digit for too l ong.

[ballah]

Originally posted by max_boost
So that means the order didn't go through yet but will once the market opens up. If things do bounce back tomorrow, the opening price (your market purchase price) 'could' be a lot higher than the closing price of today, just to let you know :D

thanks max, it worked out to be good. the price i bought in was $20.20 this morning.

but now the stock is dropping like crazy, do you think that this was a good buy? i m still tryin to figure out what is gonna happen once the price of oil goes up (will this stock go up as well?)

[Canmorite]

Gold to 690 again?

[max_boost]

Holy hell man.

This is crazy! I'm going to leave HOU for the mean time and play around with HOD. If Oil is going to drop below $40, I want to make some money first.

Dumped 500 shares into HOD. We'll see what happens the rest of the day.

[djayz]

^Already raking in the cash with that one haha.

Think I'll pick up another position in HGU today...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Gold to 690 again?

My bet is the support will be between 720-740, I'm sold that we are now in an uptrend for gold so this dip is a buying opporunity.

as far as oil price is concern I read the chart for the last 50 years and during a recession, oil could easily dip back to 20 dollars like it did many times in the history. the average oil price in the last 50 years is like around 24 dollars. so I'll place my big bets at 30 and 25 but be prepare oil wont make a run up for some time. And any rally would be short lived

[max_boost]

So what do you think is going to come out of the Dec 17th meeting? Would we see any Oil rally leading up to it or after it?

SilverRex, why wait for Oil to dip to $25-$30 before buying HOU? Buy HOD now and enjoy the ride down and then enjoy the wave up!

:poosie: :poosie: :poosie:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
So what do you think is going to come out of the Dec 17th meeting? Would we see any Oil rally leading up to it or after it?

SilverRex, why wait for Oil to dip to $25-$30 before buying HOU? Buy HOD now and enjoy the ride down and then enjoy the wave up!

:poosie: :poosie: :poosie:

I know what you mean but you know im a gold bull, so my focus is on gold and right now its probablly just a matter of days if not hours away from pushing all in with gold for myself. I think oil is a good play but may not be the best play at this time.

look at it this way, oil could dip to 40, 30 and 20, the potential for risk is much greater than say gold which I think the bottom I believe was established at 681.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by SilverRex


My bet is the support will be between 720-740, I'm sold that we are now in an uptrend for gold so this dip is a buying opporunity.



Looking at fundamentals, I think Gold can go higher if the USD is devaluated. Especially if the Fed keeps taking on loans it may impode and default on the debt (Wouldn't that be a riot). Technically, I think Gold is going lower. I'm torn :dunno:

Long-term trendline broken, re-test, failure, and now falling back towards 690 lows.

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/7470/gold120508ff7.gif

[Canmorite]

Double post...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Looking at fundamentals, I think Gold can go higher if the USD is devaluated. Especially if the Fed keeps taking on loans it may impode and default on the debt (Wouldn't that be a riot). Technically, I think Gold is going lower. I'm torn :dunno:

Long-term trendline broken, re-test, failure, and now falling back towards 690 lows.




you cant really just look at that as I have to say gold price relative to the US dollar is somewhat misleading if you compare gold with all other currency's pretty much the story is completely different. Look at the gold vs euro for example.

http://goldseek.com/news/GoldenJackass/2008/12-4gj/3.jpg

you can say your chart looks bearish, but there are way more bullish outlook for gold right now than ever. Anyone one thing could cause gold to rocket. For example, because the comex paper gold price is so depressed compare to the physical market. On Dec 19 (I think) there is a surge is interest to take december delivery of the comex gold, and guess what if the comex vault couldnt produce enough to meet the demand, the default of the comex could immediate cause gold price to explode over night. Also by sept 2009, the agreement to sell gold from many countries will end. Even now, many nations are holding back if not stop selling gold. So by the end of next year there will be another catalyst for gold to move higher.

not to mention china is increasing their gold reserve from 600 ton to 4000 ton (not sure if its already happened yet though)

another chart showing real interest rate back in 2001 when the US trying to stimulate the market, it in turn helped gold surge to current level. Guess what, we are at if not soon to be lower than 1% so this again will cause money to flow into Gold once the panic stops and the market stablizes itself somewhat.

Gold is not just hedge against fear, it is hedge against a devaluating US dollar if not all the currency in the world. Gold is also a hedge againt inflation. Doesnt matter how you cut and dice it, the list goes on.

Also back in 1930 crash, first it was the crash of the stock market, then money flew into bonds, then the bond bubble crashed (buffet even called that months ago and has moved his cash out of bonds) then when bonds collaspe next is money will flow into gold which also means the drop of the US green back begins. One article opinion suggestion the US curreny could devalue as much as 90% in a few years. That would be another crisis.

back in 1913 had you hold 2000 dollars till today, it would have worth about 100 dollars, but had you put your 2k in gold you will now be sitting on 33,000 dollar worth of gold.

This financial downturn aint nothing like 2001, its worse than that. The era of paper money is done. Look for Gold price in the next few years to continue to surprise everyone.

Hack if you read the bible, alot of interpration calls the end times with hyper inflation.

Gold has no where but up so treat the dips as an buying opportunity.

[max_boost]

^^^

Good point. I'm going to pick up some HGU but now right now. I think it's going to dip closer to the low $700's before I jump in.

[bigbadboss101]

Damn good info! Love my Friday's off. Get to play a bit and pick up some bargains.

[SilverRex]

im still a believer of an obama rally,. the DOW has time and time again holding well above 8200 or so to say alot of buying at around this level. I'm not surprised that everyone is waiting for the unemployment and payroll numbers (which is a given that it will disappoint) to come out, then a rally until jan?

I sure hope so, as technically every chart and co is due to break out.

DOW to 10-11k

yes the US dollar index surged last night, im not surprised its trying to establish two things. Either it is going to crash now putting a bearish head and shoulder or it is making its final reach to 90 which is the very heavy retracement resistance.


i also think the exchange between CAD and US again is at its peak, so those who wish to turn their US dollar into CAD now is the time to do so

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by SilverRex

Gold has no where but up so treat the dips as an buying opportunity.

Good points, but don't be so certain. Anything can happen in this market. When cash strapped funds need cash, Gold reserves are usually sold first (Who knows how much Gold they have left though, ha).

The business demand for Gold has dried up. The only real demand now is physical gold for consumers and investors. I know people have been hoarding coins and what not, but we'll see. At this point things still appear bearish, especially with all commodities in the shitter.

EDIT: And as for now, we're still in deflation mode.

[SilverRex]

geez 500k job loss and the DOW is about to close green. Talk about the near term bottom is in.

gold is looking good, tested the .6 retracement at around 740

HGU regained 17% off its low, faaaantastical.

I didnt even know I had set a buy below 7 bucks,

man HOU is like at 2.70, and if oil does dip to 30 bucks, 25% loss = 50% loss for HOU that means 1.35 wow. I think thats when I will start playing HOU.


http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif


look when oil crashed, it has time and time again fall back to about 20-30 dollars. But one article suggest the break even in order for oil to be produced from other countries is at 30 dollars. which happens to be the world average price in the last 50 years at around 27.0

I dont know about you, but I'm waiting for 30 dollar oil. Notice from 87 to 99, oil did rebound only to trend lower. Will oil take 10 years to recover? I think not because the supply and demand today is far different than it was 20 years ago. Will oil rally? of course, will oil rally and recover fully? I think we will see something like what happen in 87-99, but over the course of 12-18 months. in the mean time, sell into the rally

[max_boost]

I've made the decision to hold on to my 500+shares of HOD. I'm in for a profit around $1500 but fuck it. I hope there is no rally and it continues to tank into next week. Hoping for $35 oil by next Friday.

:devil: :devil: :devil:

[djayz]

In such a bind here between Gold and Oil haha.

Already holding a position higher up in HGU but want more or I could grab HOD and watch oil plummet but no cash for both.

I'm so sad my order of HGU at 6.35 didn't get filled today and it looks like I'm waiting until Monday now for any action haha.

[Canmorite]

Still not sold on Gold. It's going to take some major events to turn this dog around. We're dealing with major deflation here not hyperinflation. Looking forwards it is a possibility...but I'm staying out/bearish for now.

[max_boost]

So I was thinking, I feel a bit guilty or shameful or whatever you want to call it for buying an Oil Bear ETF (HOD). I mean Oil dropping over $100 from it's peak already screwed a lot of people but me wanting it to drop another $15 and continue to profit from it while so many others are in misery. But the world is in a recession and consumption is down. The cure for Oil going back up could be for it to go down/crash first. I don't know. Not sure what I'm getting at.

:nut: :nut: :nut:

:dunno: :dunno: :dunno:

Edit: Seeing how things go the opposite direction of what I do, me buying HOD could just mean HOU is about to sky rocket.

:devil: :devil: :devil:

[bigbadboss101]

One is at a 52+ week high and the other low. Actually HOD fluctuated quite a bit today.

[Canmorite]

How much downside does oil have from here? Clearly not as much upside :D

[max_boost]

Lots of downside perhaps? At least that's what I'm making myself believe!

FWIW: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8119626


By Martin de Sa'Pinto
ZURICH, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices could fall as low as $20 a barrel in 2009 as falling U.S. demand outstrips Chinese growth, asset manager Jacques Mechelany told Reuters this week.
Having already profited handsomely from the steep decline in crude prices, Mechelany intends to continue to take short positions in crude oil futures and selected oil-related stocks.
The forecast may seem excessively bearish, but Mechelany is used to sticking his neck out. His $50 target for 2008 must have seemed equally ambitious in early July 2008, when oil prices were peaking at almost three times that level.
"Prices tend to overshoot both on the upside and on the downside. In the context of the latest movement $20 is only one standard deviation from $35, which I consider to be the long-term equilibrium price," said Mechelany.
He based his estimate of the long-term fair value of crude on long-term supply and demand trends. However, he said, prices may fall below fair value for a period.
"When oil prices begin falling leveraged investors have to unwind positions, further depressing prices," he said.

[aklalani]

any thoughts on cpg.un crescent point energy trust. great yield. went below its previous 52 week low on friday.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by aklalani
any thoughts on cpg.un crescent point energy trust. great yield. went below its previous 52 week low on friday.

Parents own it and it's being a piece of shit. Already cut their holdings in half and might dump the rest. Anything Oil related is pretty much crap.

If OPEC cuts supply significantly, maybe it won't go down so much. They'd have to cut by quite a bit though.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite


Parents own it and it's being a piece of shit. Already cut their holdings in half and might dump the rest. Anything Oil related is pretty much crap.

If OPEC cuts supply significantly, maybe it won't go down so much. They'd have to cut by quite a bit though.

So are you bearish on everything related to Oil?

[max_boost]

Until it hits $20, then Canmorite is going to be very bullish. :devil: :devil: :devil:

[liquid1010]

I don't think it'll get all that much lower. As Oil companies lower their capital spend, production will decrease and price will begin to creep up again. I think we'll see $80+ oil again within 16-18 months.

[Canmorite]

I was more bearish, but now the downside is fairly limited. Just how much farther lower can we go? 0 is the ultimate floor ;)

When Crude futures make a bottoming and a move upwards, then I'll turn neutral. That may not be for a year or more, though.

[SilverRex]

futures are looking hot this monday morning, what do you know, has the obama rally finally began? gold looking good too, looks like its going to be a nice week if not a strong close for the year this month :D

the US dollar dropped 5% against CAD just as I saw it, lets hope it breaks 86 on the dollar index then that would be the H&S ive been waiting for this sucker to tank

with gold re-closing above the all important 773 support. it has legs to at least reach 850, can it break out this uptrend and onto 900? it may fall back down to find support. I'll be looking to cash in around 850 then wait for buying back dips at 800 or even 773 again

update: WOW, I'm up pre-market 20% on HGU, dam had you picked off the low you would be up near 30%

[anothers10]

I picked up HOU on friday and wanted to pick up HGU but was wainting for it to dip a little more, boy did I miss out.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by anothers10
I picked up HOU on friday and wanted to pick up HGU but was wainting for it to dip a little more, boy did I miss out.

well i did what I could to convince everyone here that gold is here to stay and the dip last week is a good buying opporunity, I even suggested 720-740 will be the bottom short term, and it did touch off 740, anyhow I still respect those who are still skeptical and they have every reason to be, in this crazy market, anything could happen. For all I know, maybe I could still be wrong haha. So trade at your own risk right :thumbsup:

But

if the obvious is true, dollar will only continue to fall, gold will keep (creeping higher) then I want to be on this wagon. I read somewhere that at once upon a time, gold and DOW ratio was at 1 to 1. that means gold probablly will hit 4000-5000 dollars and DOW will be down to 4000-5000 points. I dont know if that day will come or if it is now. But that isnt what's important. whats important is, if it does happen are you going to be one of the few that will be depressed over not having any sort of gold diversification when the time comes. That hurts more than say buying gold and not getting the return you hope for.

After all, no one suggest gambling all your cash and savings into the yellow metal. But having a position somewhere is a good investment strategy, what fund on earth would they not include gold as part of their profolio next year? Anyways. in a market like this, only comes once or twice a life time. Ultimately, Gold is attactive not because of the return but because people are afraid of a devaulation of their currency. Even if gold did not give you the 100, 200% gain, just having it as a stable hedge against inflation already makes it worth the while.

first its the accumalation of gold at these low prices, the fireworks at the comex would be a nice thing to look at comes end of the month, then when countries are all loaded up, they will slowly unwind the US currency which further push gold prices higher. I have probablly many reasons that can cause gold to explode, who can tell me just as many reason it would not? just deflation? if I was not mistaken, deflation was short lived in the last crash because they fought it off with inflation. While the beginning of inflation is quite positive to this economy, God knows what our next crisis will be years from now. Example, people facing 1000 dollar oil

[SilverRex]

nice picked up HGU at 6.9, sold at 8.59 :) This will give me the option to buy back if this was a fake rally back to 740 or below while still holding AUY/ABX for longer term

[rc2002]

The US will be the first country out of recession. It's currency is not going to crash, contrary to popular opinion.

Gold is one of the most highly manipulated metals in the world - be prepared to get burned on it because it's not going to follow fundamentals or past history.

[Canmorite]

The Obama rally, led by industrials, could devalue the dollar more if he wants to spend money on infrastructure. He's got to print that money, or create it via bonds.

Spending your way out of a problem usually works, but they've got so much debt as it is, plus the Fed has tons of liabilities on it's books already :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by richardchan2002
The US will be the first country out of recession. It's currency is not going to crash, contrary to popular opinion.

Gold is one of the most highly manipulated metals in the world - be prepared to get burned on it because it's not going to follow fundamentals or past history.


Isnt this kind of the same idea when everyone was thinking the same in the financial sector? but yet the obvious happened, with the crashing of the real estate market that eventually bought all banks to their knees?

Lets say I give you gold is being manipulated, and because I Agree with you that history does not represent the future, that means there is a probable chance that finally the maniuplation could end. The weakness of the US dollar will become so overwhelming that there is no way to fight the current crisis and deflation but to print more money hence they can no longer keep the lid on Gold prices. Otherwise your basically contradicting your sentences because if gold is continued to be maniupulated that means history IS repeating itself.

[max_boost]

Oil is up. I was expecting it after a week of declines. Now is this just a 'fake rally' in your words SilverRex or the real deal? I'm not sure. With OPEC expected to announce huge cuts on the 17th, it's a guessing game what impact it will have on the barrel price. I'm still a believer in $30 oil haha but I have to protect myself either way. Limits are set on HOD. Just in case this thing starts going crazy. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oil is up. I was expecting it after a week of declines. Now is this just a 'fake rally' in your words SilverRex or the real deal? I'm not sure. With OPEC expected to announce huge cuts on the 17th, it's a guessing game what impact it will have on the barrel price. I'm still a believer in $30 oil haha but I have to protect myself either way. Limits are set on HOD. Just in case this thing starts going crazy. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

with the market rallying, im not so suprise to see oil bouncing back higher, but I think in due time oil will tread lower when this rally is done. We may have seen the near term bottom for oil just as the DOw had put in a huge support around 8200.

as far as the fake rally is concern, I'm just making sure I have cash aside to buy the dips (for gold that is). I will focus on oil when the right time comes. !!! trade at your own risk, but if I was to buy oil now, I would as I see a very strong break towards its 50MA which is around 65 dollars (lower if it takes longer to get there), then the real sell off will begin that will work its way towards 30 bucks.

EDIT: but technically oil price will eventually hit the 38% retracement which is around 80 bucks before , the only question is, when and most likely due to the volatility, you will first have to see the pattern of the formation of a bottom to occur first, that could mean a double or triple bottom before things look extremely bullish here. The opporunity is here, so trade accordingly.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by Canmorite

Spending your way out of a problem usually works, but they've got so much debt as it is, plus the Fed has tons of liabilities on it's books already :dunno:

:werd:

The value of the liabilities they hold are also going through the floor. They have purchased crap off the Balance Sheets of Corporate America, and assumed that risk - therebye injecting capital not through normal bond purchases, but crap asset purchases.

[max_boost]

So with an expected rate cut of at least 50bps by the BOC (tomorrow is it?), this rally should hold up for the rest of the week? ;) ;) ;)

[Godfuader]

COS.UN
SU
IVN
OIL

Looking to buy about $1,000 each....suggestions? :thumbsup: :thumbsdow

Do we think this is just another artificial rally??

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Godfuader
COS.UN
SU
IVN
OIL

Looking to buy about $1,000 each....suggestions? :thumbsup: :thumbsdow

Do we think this is just another artificial rally??

the way to trade is short term, thanks to the ETF x2 fund, just pick pocket either the oil fund bull when oil price dips to 40 dollar, you will be surprised how many times you can make the quick 20%

look at the oil price when it dip to 50 dollars, it literally went from 50 to 55 3 times within a span of a week. the 10% gain is 20% if you were buying HOU

I see the same thing happening all over again with oil price at 40, so far it already put in its 10% march to 44.67 (just for kicks) I will try this if it dips back below 41 dollars.

[max_boost]

^^^

OIL (Oilexco) is up huge today. My dad gambled and it paid off and he's debating if he wants to wait or profit take.

It's such a guessing game. I made a case for Oil price dropping into the $30's and $20's and now I find myself thinking it's getting ready for a short term rally. Pending rate cut plus OPEC cutting supply/production. I'm really not sure. :nut: :nut: :nut:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
^^^

OIL (Oilexco) is up huge today. My dad gambled and it paid off and he's debating if he wants to wait or profit take.

It's such a guessing game. I made a case for Oil price dropping into the $30's and $20's and now I find myself thinking it's getting ready for a short term rally. Pending rate cut plus OPEC cutting supply/production. I'm really not sure. :nut: :nut: :nut:

typically rally or short covering probablly wont begin until the 3rd week of each month, knowing the OPEC meet is around that time frame as well as the possible further rate cut coming up.

I am not surprise oil will head back down to 40 bucks. In which I will scoup up some HOU then :)

[Godfuader]

Originally posted by max_boost
^^^

OIL (Oilexco) is up huge today. My dad gambled and it paid off and he's debating if he wants to wait or profit take.

It's such a guessing game. I made a case for Oil price dropping into the $30's and $20's and now I find myself thinking it's getting ready for a short term rally. Pending rate cut plus OPEC cutting supply/production. I'm really not sure. :nut: :nut: :nut:

Been staring at this all morning. Trading at $1.97 right now. Might see a last minute rally if it breaks $2?

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Godfuader


Been staring at this all morning. Trading at $1.97 right now. Might see a last minute rally if it breaks $2?

Just broke it, 2.01.

*****
As the year winds down, Oilexco faces a pending deadline for extending debt repayment in early 2009 but may also be sold before that time. After the unsuccessful convertible debenture and equity financing in November, the company hired a UK-based advisor to assist in reviewing strategic alternatives. One of these alternatives includes a possible sale of some or all of the company.

The UK press is now reporting that several companies are interested and a data room has been opened. While this should not be news to anyone following the fortunes of the company, it would appear that the glory days for Oilexco are rapidly drawing to a close.

Pending the possible sale of the company, the next catalyst will be the commissioning of the Shelley oil field. The FPSO, Sevan Voyaguer, sailed from port approximately eight days ago and with good weather in the North Sea, the field should be on stream in January 2009. This should add approximately 10,000 bbl/d of new production to the company.

[max_boost]

WOW. This is insane! Are we going to see a pull back tomorrow? Or keep going up? :eek: :eek: :eek:

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by max_boost
WOW. This is insane! Are we going to see a pull back tomorrow? Or keep going up? :eek: :eek: :eek:

for daddy's sake, TO THE MOON! :bigpimp:

[bigbadboss101]

Nice gain for Potash and Crescent Point Energy the last two sessions.

[max_boost]

Haha my dad is so unsure of what to do right now.

He got in to OIL at $1.50 and now it's trading in the $2.30ish range. He's hoping for $5. Hahaha

[bigbadboss101]

ELD and other gold moving up today.

For OIL one can probably swing trade until something happens. Sell off of assets, or a suitor.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Haha my dad is so unsure of what to do right now.

He got in to OIL at $1.50 and now it's trading in the $2.30ish range. He's hoping for $5. Hahaha

dont blame if for the wrong tip but this is a VERY volatile market, the hold and wait approach will not work, at least not now. And oil hasnt shown much of a bottoming out process yet like a double or triple bottom etc.

Yes you may catch a very significant rally since oil price has been so depressed in the last few months, but other than that I see plenty of opportunity down the road and there will be many levels being tested and retested before it can make higher that much higher.

at the least, cash out half his position.

for gold when it hits above 830 I'm going to unwind everything and wait for dips

[Canmorite]

Echoing what SilverRex said. $2.50 is major resistance, and $1.50 support. Maybe sell half at 2.50 and see what happens:)

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex


for gold when it hits above 830 I'm going to unwind everything and wait for dips

you going to wait for it to go up 50-60 dollar still?

I'm thinking of cashing out on my HGU and wait for the next dip even though last time I sold out I got burned when it went from 6 to 9. It's sitting at 9 now though and I have a feeling it might fall down again.

your thoughts? hold or sell? haha

edit: HGU having trouble at the 9.15 level :o

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by djayz


you going to wait for it to go up 50-60 dollar still?

I'm thinking of cashing out on my HGU and wait for the next dip even though last time I sold out I got burned when it went from 6 to 9. It's sitting at 9 now though and I have a feeling it might fall down again.

your thoughts? hold or sell? haha

edit: HGU having trouble at the 9.15 level :o

i already took my profit with HGU, what I meant about gold to reach higher are my other position. so win win situation, if it goes higher I have other things to unwind, but if it heads back down I will be looking at to reload

[e36bmw///]

nbm

[Canmorite]

I've looked at this before but I think this explains the recently rally more so then Obama or any other fundamental factor. Simple bounce off support.

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/6105/spy80wz5.gif

Rarely will you punch through significant low/highs without stalling first. I think 800 will hold on the S&P. If not, run to the hills.

[JRSC00LUDE]

Any or you more "in the know" stock guys have opinions on shoregold these days? Used to be around $8/share at it's peak but all the recent events have them back down to penny stock ($0.25) at the moment.

Diamond companies are risky but this is a proven company with a solid plan, I know people who work at the Fort la Corne project. Might be worth throwing a disposable grand into and waiting a year or two to see if it rebounds?

Thoughts?

http://www.shoregold.com/

[ballah]

here s an interesting read for you guys... i just bought 30g's of this stock at $20.20 and sold at $22.01 (took 2.5 days)..


Canadian Oil Sands to spend $440-million in 2009


Canadian Oil Sands Trust (2) (C:COS)
Shares Issued 481,540,387
Last Close COS.UN 12/8/2008 $21.97
Tuesday December 09 2008 - News Release

Mr. Marcel Coutu reports

CANADIAN OIL SANDS PROVIDES 2009 BUDGET

Canadian Oil Sands Trust is providing its budget for 2009. Unless otherwise noted, all figures are based on Canadian Oil Sands' 36.74-per-cent working interest in the Syncrude joint venture.

Synthetic crude oil production:


Annual total: 42.3 million barrels (range of 40 to 44 million barrels)

Daily average: 115,800 barrels per day

Operating costs: $30.72 per barrel

Cash from operating activities: $1.70 per trust unit

Capital expenditures: $440-million


Key assumptions:


WTI crude oil: $50 (U.S.) per barrel

Premium (discount) to WTI: $4 per barrel

AECO natural gas ($/gigajoule) $6

Foreign exchange rate: $1 equals 82.5 U.S. cents


The 2009 budget reflects the following main factors:


A production estimate that incorporates a turnaround of Coker 8-3 in the second quarter of the year, a turnaround of the LC-Finer in the third quarter, a turnaround of the vacuum unit with the timing not yet determined and an allowance for some unplanned outages. The production range reflects the upside and downside in volumes Syncrude could experience, depending on operational reliability. The trust believes the main factor limiting production in 2009 is constrained bitumen supply as a result of reduced reliability in the mining and extraction processes, which Syncrude is working to solve;
Amended Crown royalty terms for the Syncrude project, which are based on 25 per cent of plant gate bitumen revenue less Syncrude operating, non-production and allowed capital costs relating to bitumen production, plus recapture of upgrader growth capital. See Canadian Oil Sands' news released in Stockwatch on Nov. 18, 2008, for more information;
A capital expenditure budget of $440-million, or about $10.40 per barrel. Approximately $290-million of the budget is allocated for maintenance of business and other, with the remaining $150-million allocated for the Syncrude emissions reduction (SER) project. The SER project is a multiyear environmental project that is designed to reduce sulphur compound emissions by approximately 60 per cent from current approved levels when completed.

Changes in certain factors and market conditions could potentially impact this budget. In particular, cash from operating activities is highly sensitive to crude oil prices and U.S./Canadian-dollar foreign exchange rates. Every $1 (U.S.) per barrel change in the WTI crude oil price impacts cash from operating activities by eight cents per trust unit, while every one-cent U.S./Canadian change in the exchange rate impacts cash from operating activities by five cents per trust unit. More information on the trust's 2009 budget, including a sensitivity analysis of other key factors affecting the budget, is provided in its 2009 guidance document, which is available on the trust's website under the investor section. Canadian Oil Sands intends to continue providing quarterly updates to its guidance.

"Syncrude's focus continues to be on improving operational reliability. We are realizing the benefits of Imperial Oil and ExxonMobil's assistance, most notably in improved upgrader throughput and better energy efficiency. Production gains are anticipated in 2009 over 2008 with the objective of reaching our design capacity of 350,000 barrels per day, gross to Syncrude, in 2010," said Marcel Coutu, Canadian Oil Sands' president and chief executive officer.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

gold looking good again, a breakout and should see a retest towards 830 and support is at 780 for those that wish to buy back.

oil at 44 still waiting for it to hit below 41, it was so close was at 41.84

anyone here know where is a good place to buy physical 100ounce silver bar?

[anothers10]

I was just going to post how well gold is doing this morning but SilverRex your already ontop of it. Makes me wish I did buy HGU but missed the boat this round. I am still holding AUY for now.

[djayz]

Have a sell order in for all my HGU at 10.50 today lets hope it hits and gold settles down again for the next load up.
So glad I didn't sell out yesterday as today was a huge jump up.

SilverRex any comments? Gold continuing upwards or should see the regular test and a fall back down?

[Canmorite]

Man if Gold can break 830 and hold we may get a sustained rally. I think that will be the most important thing for a rally going forward.

[djayz]

Gold getting closer :eek:

[SilverRex]

im waiting between 830-850 to unwind all my position then wait for drop as gold has entered into a consolidation phrase between 700-850 and for how long I am not sure, but it will eventually lead to the break out to the top side of 900, then I think we will find resistance there before going any higher.

There will be alot of opportunity just have to be patient, its so difficult to pull the trigger and take the profit and wait. so having multiple positions and entry helps.

[Canmorite]

After the big run up to $1000 I've been sitting on the sidelines. I don't know what to make of this recent action :dunno:

Picking a rally point for Gold basically means picking the top in the $USD, more or less. the $USD index looks toppy, but I want to see a strong reversal there.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Canmorite
After the big run up to $1000 I've been sitting on the sidelines. I don't know what to make of this recent action :dunno:

Picking a rally point for Gold basically means picking the top in the $USD, more or less. the $USD index looks toppy, but I want to see a strong reversal there.

if you look at the dollar strength index, you can clearly see the daily chart is topping out and a collaspe below 85 will further depress the strength down towards 80-82 but if you stare at a higher chart level say the weekly, you will see the top in the sub level is merely just peaking out temporary, and if you look a the weekly chart from years ago, the last time it put in a bearish h&s was the sign that the dollar finally ran its course in its last rally.

so, what I see is, the daily chart will no doubt exhust the recent run, but I still think we will see yet a higher us dollar sometime next year when stocks will plumet to 4000 DOW, I dont think the overall picture turns extreme negative until you see a topping form on the weekly chart.

and if my prediction is correct, first gold will consolidate between 680-870, then it will breakout and consolidate between 870 and 1030, then the 3rd breakout will see higher gold prices possibly at the end of next year.

[bigbadboss101]

Damn ELD and POT on a roll. POT $20 higher than when I sold it 4-5 sessions ago, and ELD up probably $2 since.

[max_boost]

Ahhh! What now? It has to be due for a pull back tomorrow right?

Sell now? Profit and enjoy? LOL
Continue holding? Oil breaks $50?

So happy I got all my HOU under $3 hahaha

Hey djayz, $10.50 was too low, should have set it at $11.00 :devil: :devil: :devil:

[wiggaplz]

does anybody see a bottom anytime soon? I've just been buying and selling junior oil & gas plays and teck just to make some small profit but I would hate to miss out on the bottom in the oil sector and also precious metals.

any beyodn economists out there?

[max_boost]

So I've made a decision to not sell any of my HOU. I'm thinking a bit longer term here. I'm thinking $100 oil and then I'll be laughing.

I either don't have the skill or luck to short term buy/sell. If I sell for profit today, tomorrow it'll go up and I'm stuck and can't decide. Actually, that irritates me. I'll take option B, if I don't do anything today and it tanks tomorrow, I have the option of increasing my position. I don't mind option B because I'm use to losing. It's the winning part and not maximizing that annoys me more. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Damn ELD and POT on a roll. POT $20 higher than when I sold it 4-5 sessions ago, and ELD up probably $2 since.

My dad has held on to his POT since it was at $95. He refused to let me set a stop for him and he watched it tank into the $60's. LOL

If he can break even, he'll be more than happy to it! Haha

[djayz]

Haha I didn't sell out of HGU at 10.50 although I wish I did now.
I'll wait until end of the day but I have a feeling tomorrow markets will head lower as will Gold and Oil and that's when I'll be kicking myself for not selling.

I guess I'll set a stop limit at 10.10 and hope for the best.

[aklalani]

Originally posted by djayz
Haha I didn't sell out of HGU at 10.50 although I wish I did now.
I'll wait until end of the day but I have a feeling tomorrow markets will head lower as will Gold and Oil and that's when I'll be kicking myself for not selling.

I guess I'll set a stop limit at 10.10 and hope for the best.

im thinking the opposite. i think this will be another 1 week run and then downhill.

just picked up 1000 shares of NCX.TO. Lowest its been in a year. They did announce a new CEO. Hopefully i can get a quick spike tomorrow or by friday and then dump em.

what do you guys think??

[djayz]

I hope you're right aklalani I didn't sell out of my HGU so tomorrow we better see Gold break that 830 level

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by SilverRex


if you look at the dollar strength index, you can clearly see the daily chart is topping out and a collaspe below 85 will further depress the strength down towards 80-82 but if you stare at a higher chart level say the weekly, you will see the top in the sub level is merely just peaking out temporary, and if you look a the weekly chart from years ago, the last time it put in a bearish h&s was the sign that the dollar finally ran its course in its last rally.

so, what I see is, the daily chart will no doubt exhust the recent run, but I still think we will see yet a higher us dollar sometime next year when stocks will plumet to 4000 DOW, I dont think the overall picture turns extreme negative until you see a topping form on the weekly chart.

and if my prediction is correct, first gold will consolidate between 680-870, then it will breakout and consolidate between 870 and 1030, then the 3rd breakout will see higher gold prices possibly at the end of next year.

I'm not going to disagree about the dollar index, but 4000 DOW I dunno.

Heres what I'm looking at. Stopped (for now) right at the top of the channel. :dunno:

http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/784/gold121008sv6.gif

[aklalani]

Originally posted by djayz
I hope you're right aklalani I didn't sell out of my HGU so tomorrow we better see Gold break that 830 level

i hope so too. still have my Goldcorp position which i bought at 19.80. Hoping it gets to the $36-$37 level

[anothers10]

oil and gold are strong again this morning. Who is holding gold and who is selling today ? It looks like it might be over 830 very soon.

[SilverRex]

http://goldseek.com/news/RickAckerman/2008/Gold%20push%20above%20808.jpg

so far with gold above 808, we are looking good. however 830 is quite the resistance it is also the 200 day moving average and also has been tested 7-8 times in the last 3-4 months. so its outright important.

therefore two things can happen, depending on what happens at 808, it can either fall back to 740 or chanel between 800-830 for a few days before breaking out higher towards 890

of course what is even more interesting right now is that the US dollar index has broken the 50day moving average and is now appear to complete whats a bearish H&S that puts the target to around 80-82 while I think this may also be due to the fact that the US dollar is probablly factoring in the rate cut that is coming up along side that it is temporary overbought (topping out) obviously this is good news for gold.

I am however not surprise to see the US dollar index quickly rebounding 'only' to retest the breakdown trendline at around 85 which probablly means a retest of 808 gold? Then as the dollar strenght falters towards 80 (which is also the 200 day moving average) that would means alot of things can happen.

Stock will rally towards 10-11k (typically weak dollar translate to equity strength as dollar is pouring back into the market) both oil and gold will reach higher notably to 870-900 gold and oil towards 60-65 as a temporary peak.

now am I such a genius predicting such moves and calling these level? Dont take my word for it, trade at your own risk, that is what I see if you ask me.

and lets just say if the rally is real and its big, then dont let it fool you as I think we are headed lower starting next year, gold will continue to consolidate, oil will retest its low a few times and the US dollar strength on higher charts still needs to establish a more convincing top

[SilverRex]

ive cashed out my auy and abx im taking a chance here and hope it dips and buy back :/

[Chandler_Racing]

My friend typically does the technical analysis and I review the financial statements. What is everyones take on this one:

Dryships Inc (ticker:DRYS)

Trading signal: Volume Spike, 8 December 2008

The stock has risen 3 days in a row with heavy volumes, i.e rally with above average volume, a big +ve. Today's price action:

open - 11.17
high - 12.10
low - 10.02
close - 10.71
volume - 588,025 (20% less than yesterday's volume)


3D analysis:

Weekly chart - A big white candle not seen in 2 months with extremely heavy volume, very bullish

Daily chart - A 3 white knight price pattern, reinforcing the above. However, price is approaching the upper Bollinger band and it is tightening, suggesting a near term resistance. PDI has just crossed above MDI, giving a warning of a possible change in trend.

5 minute chart - Three opening gaps occured in the last three days including today. From a gap theory point of view, today's gap opening might be the exhaustion gap. That being the case, should mark the end of the current rally. An inverted hammer (with heavy volume) found in the first 20 minutes of trading suggesting an intraday buying climax. All the clues suggest profit taking leading to a price consolidation in the near term.

Where do we go from here:

1. An extended rally beyond today's high ($12.1)? Unlikely
2. A flat top triangle? Possible. Let's see how the prices in the next two weeks are going to unfold.
3. Trading range? Possible. Action same as (2).
4. Retracement? Very likely. In which case expecting an Adam and Eve price pattern.
The fibonacci % retracements are: 33% - $9.08; 50% - $7.57 and 66% - $6.06.

Action:

The highest possibilty is price will retrace a minimum of 1/3. In this current bear market, 1/2 retracement is very common. Should we see 2/3 retracement, then we can forget this stock and it is time to look for a better candidate.

Refrain from action until 15 December 2008.

Note: Market will be extremely volatile next week due to the month/quarter/year expiration. Rethink before establishing a new position.

Thoughts?

[Canmorite]

85 break on USD index means push above 830 in Gold? Should be interesting...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Canmorite
85 break on USD index means push above 830 in Gold? Should be interesting...

yes as you can see when the dollar index was around 80-84 back in sept-oct time frame, gold was in the 830-900 range.

that is why we need dollar to loose momentum if we want higher gold price.

[Canmorite]

Eurodollar moving higher already after forming a huge base below 1.3075. Could be telling.

[max_boost]

Oh snap! What to do?

I'm +20% on HOU now!

[djayz]

So gold hit over 830 today however it went back down and has tested the 830 level twice again but just isn't breaking it.

Still holding my HGU position waiting to unload today or tomrorow however.

[ballah]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oh snap! What to do?

I'm +20% on HOU now!

not a 100% sure dude. i ve been thinkin bout investing in this as well. not to sure if i missed the boat on this first run.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oh snap! What to do?

I'm +20% on HOU now!

you should be up 30% I say take your profit at 3.75 now, oil so far retraced 50% from 55 to 41 drop.

I'm calling overbought and dollar index to retrace quickly that will give me another change to get back in with gold.

[max_boost]

This is crazy. Oil keeps climbing too. :nut: :nut: :nut:

I'm greedy though man. Go big or go home. Waiting for at least $10 HOU. :bigpimp: :bigpimp: :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
This is crazy. Oil keeps climbing too. :nut: :nut: :nut:

I'm greedy though man. Go big or go home. Waiting for at least $10 HOU. :bigpimp: :bigpimp: :bigpimp:

well you are shooting for 80 dollar oil which I dont think will happen until middle to late next year. you will see plenty of side way action that swings anywhere from 10-20 dollars potentially.

;)

[aklalani]

Originally posted by max_boost
This is crazy. Oil keeps climbing too. :nut: :nut: :nut:

I'm greedy though man. Go big or go home. Waiting for at least $10 HOU. :bigpimp: :bigpimp: :bigpimp:

lol. id sell now and buy up again around 2.50-3.00 when oil retracts

[max_boost]

Yeah I have still have quite a bit of cash set aside for HOU. I was thinking in case Oil did drop into the $30's I would be ready but that never materialized. I'm waiting for pullbacks so I can enter more but if HOU keeps climbing, I'm content to sit on my 10,000 shares and just letting it ride.

[djayz]

Damn it gold!!! keeps hitting 830 but can't break it.

Do I sell or hold HGU now, might retrace or might break that 830 and shoot up to 900 like SilverRex keeps saying, dont want to miss that :banghead:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by djayz
Damn it gold!!! keeps hitting 830 but can't break it.

Do I sell or hold HGU now, might retrace or might break that 830 and shoot up to 900 like SilverRex keeps saying, dont want to miss that :banghead:

gold back to 900 isnt a possibility it will be a fact. all eyes are on the dollar index as Ive posted, and right now it has dropped quite significantly down to 83.3 which 80-82 isnt that far off. However, ive seen too many breakouts where it more often than not retraces itself back from where to broke thru.

SO

while I see gold only keeps going higher and higher. I'm taking a risk now by unloading it all.

Hopefully 830 holds and it will at least come back down to 800-810 (I will re-enter here) then 750 and of course go nuts if it ever does dip back to 720-730

but

if I am wrong and 830 does hold and forces gold higher say to 850 then I will wait for it to retest 830 and get back in. after all 830 is just too big of a support in the last 4 months to not be retested from time in and time out again.

[djayz]

I'll be holding until tomorrow specially if it tests the 830 level a couple more times today. So far 4 times from what I can see and it's about to go for more.

HGU not doing so well today even though gold is up 20+. Yesterday with a 30+ increase HGU was up almost 18%.

Still iffy on oil so I'll be sitting on the sidelines for that one.
I'll let max gamble big and win so he can buy us all a new car :D

[wiggaplz]

I'm up roughly 40% on TCK.B. Time to sell before I get greedy and all stocks have a bad day tommorow.

[badlivertt]

Originally posted by aklalani

just picked up 1000 shares of NCX.TO. Lowest its been in a year. They did announce a new CEO. Hopefully i can get a quick spike tomorrow or by friday and then dump em.


thanks for this one. bought while eating breakfast, sold before i went to lunch for a quick 10% take.:clap: