Official Short-term Investments Thread

[LBG]

thanks guys

[SilverRex]

oil has insane momentum to crack 47, 8 more mins and 1 hour chart will form a hammer. if that is the case we could see 48-49 oil price today.

I guess all the bears are chickened out and retreating to the near 50 oil price line for the final bout.

hmm, if I dont get a pull back below 45 then I might as well get in on HOD when it is near 50

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Yep. Looks like oil wants to run at $50.

I got stopped out at $22 on HOD. Jumped into HOU at $9.9X

Watching it closely, going to sell soon. :rofl:

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost
Yep. Looks like oil wants to run at $50.

I got stopped out at $22 on HOD. Jumped into HOU at $9.9X

Watching it closely, going to sell soon. :rofl:

Max, I thought you were in for 3400 shares@ 22.XX ?

[max_boost]

I was super emotional on Friday. It turned out to be $22.80

I tightened my stops this morning to $22 and switched over to HOU for 6000 shares.

Selling my HOU at $11 and immediately switching back over to HOD. I see it trying to crack $50 and then falling back to earth.

I'm just guessing here! :eek:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bigbadboss101]

I sold at 0.07 on Friday hoping to get back in lower.:dunno:

[Mckenzie]

Look at this! My order for 1500 shares of BUK was rejected and look at the notes. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Edit: It usually says insifficient buying power or insufficient funds or something...this is through questrade btw.

Date of Order: 01/26/2009
Time of Order: 11:08:02 EDT
Status of order: Rejected
Order Id: 83817465




Action: Buy
Quantity: 1500
Symbol: BUK.VN
Price: 0.325$
Time in Force: DAY
Notes: Resources, whatever.

[DJ_NAV]

^wtf? resources, whatever??? wierd!

[SilverRex]

well I'm out of HOU, and in to HOD, 48.50 oil is right at the 50 day moving average, I can only guess bearish forces will slowly build up. Sure it could be between 48-50

But after a run up, I will be looking for oil to dip back to 44 at the least and possibly 42.

Buy low and sell high :)

Gold is going to turn bearish soon too after hitting 915, although I wont be surprised if it suddenly makes a higher high to 920-930, either way its too dangerous to short gold so I will just wait for a good pull back to 870 and possibly 850

[Mckenzie]

I even missed my fill at that price! wtf lol..I'm going to speak with their customer service people and see if they can give me an explanation for this.

[bigbadboss101]

Interesting thoughts on gold. Gold price up but gold stocks are
starting to head lower.

I am out of HOU as well.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Interesting thoughts on gold. Gold price up but gold stocks are
starting to head lower.

I am out of HOU as well.

I remember gold stock usually leads the price of gold. so if gold stock turns lower, gold price is about to do the same.



Also, an interesting read last week had me convinced that what we are seeing now is in fact non-deflationary. What happened in 1930 was depression and deflation but what is happening now is simply a severe deep recession.

The article goes on to show a small town vilage with 3k dollar house and a small population suddenly discovers an oil patch, an in flux of 20k people competes for the cheap homes lifting house prices sinigicantly, is this inflation? of course not, its supply and demand. and when the oil patch dried up for example, the mass exodous lead to a huge drop in house prices. Is this deflation? again no, its supply and demand.

therefore what we are seeing in the market now is all bout a smoke screen, people are pulling money out of the market not because they have less but because of fear and lost of confidence. If you guage the real inflation numbers, year after year inflation is actually creeping higher.

You can only call deflation when there is a retraction in the money supply but when you add to it, it can only spawn inflation.

what does this mean? the market can still head to 6500 dow, but technically that would be a very big support level. And a few years from now we will look back as if today's prices is merely a blip.

The current CPI indicators are another scam to surpress everyone from believing in inflation.

I think the world has overblown the situation, the bigger crisis will come when inflation hits big time down the road.

[ExtraSlow]

I dropped half my HOU.

[civic_rida]

When you sell a stock does it go straight your bank account or to your investment account? On the day of settlement right?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost
Yep. Looks like oil wants to run at $50.

I got stopped out at $22 on HOD. Jumped into HOU at $9.9X

Watching it closely, going to sell soon. :rofl:

Good luck buddy, make some money!

[Z_Fan]

Oil just took a 50 cent tumble in 5 seconds.

My stop losses on HOU are gonna get triggered and then I'll be out shortly I guess. :dunno:

Didn't make any money today on it, but at least I'm controlling the losses now as opposed to watching and praying it goes the right direction. :dunno: :poosie:

[Z_Fan]

Max, I presume you got stung again on your switch from HOD to HOU as it has been dropping steadily... :nut:

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Max, I presume you got stung again on your switch from HOD to HOU as it has been dropping steadily... :nut:

I think Max is OK on HOU still...If he stopped out on HOD at 22 he got into HOU in not bad shape

[max_boost]

I canceled my sell limit and set my stop at $10 because I got to work and had to help cook up a $400 order and wasn't able to watch the ticker.

Luckily I did that because I made a measly $300. :rofl: Still better than losing though!

Thank god for $10 trades!:eek:

[Z_Fan]

I think I'm gonna get double fucked today. Switching from HOU to HOD at the wrong time. So I'm on the FAIL train again.

[max_boost]

Back into HOD at $21.95 at 3000 shares.

OK now I need oil to tank. This is just fucking retarded. I am the worst trader in the world.

Z_Fan, we need to go for beers and just get trashed one day and forget about all our investments. Just say fuck it! :nut:

[eljefe]

a quick grand if you sell now Max

Edit... Make that 3 grand now

[DJ_NAV]

what are your noon predictions? im hoping for oil and gold to be down? gold is barely moving though.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
I am the worst trader in the world.

NO!

I am the worst trader in the world.

Hahah... :poosie:

I wish I could drink it up with you. But, alas, I don't even have that option to forget my woes. Teetoteller!

[SilverRex]

welp like I said, all the bears lined up between 48-49, if I was a betting man I'll pick up HOD here, which I did bought some under 21 so now less see how far this could go.

short term target down to 44, there will be some interesting fight going on when we hit between 42-44

gold isnt moving much, I think it's still waiting for a pop to 920-930 or a break below 896 then a sell off begins that will bring it down to 870

[max_boost]

Oh fuck me, what do I do?
:rofl:

I'm going to hold. Waiting for $42 oil! :eek:

[eljefe]

Oil just won't die damnit

[dj_honda]

damn haha im getting burned today.

I was watching bnn and an analyst was saying to look at the brent crude for a better gauge of actual oil price....he says the wti is too hard to predict due there actually being no more storage at Cushing so its unstable. I think hes right :banghead:

[natejj]

Die Oil DIE!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by eljefe
Oil just won't die damnit

just chill

you got let the tug of war play out itself.

[max_boost]

Let the death quarter kill the oil price. The bulls had their little run but now it's bear territory. Today we begin the march towards $30 oil! :whipped:

[SilverRex]

^ dont get too happy, its all technical right now.

oil has been in a upward channel since the 20th,

the 48.50 happens to be right at the top of the channel, oil needs to break below 45.50 in order to collasp completely to 44, the bottom of the channel is somewhere between 43-44 depending on how soon it gets there.

I will be going from HOD to HOu once it gets there, however I will monitor this channel, if oil prices breaks below this channel it will be bearish back to 37-40 area.

[max_boost]

Where's broken_legs and civic_rida today?

The stress getting to civic_rida? :poosie: :rofl:

j/k!

[SilverRex]

nice up 10% on HOD :)

[tryingtobebest1]

is gold realy going down?

[Z_Fan]

LMAO

So I got fucked on HOU this morning, and then gave up on it and switched to HOD. Then I decided I would just bounce between the two. And it worked quite well. I was selling HOD at -.30 oil and buying HOU. Then selling HOU at +.15 or so oil and buying HOD. For whatever reason, the oil price bounced between -.30 and +.15 about 6 times and I did this buy and sell four times.

This was clearly fluke. Cuz I definitely can't blame skill. So it's gotta be luck. Well, OK, I'll be honest. I decided to treat HOD and HOU as opposites. I mean, they are opposites to begin with, so don't get too confused. But basically if my gut was telling my to buy HOD, I bought HOU and vice-versa. Hahahahhaha...

I ended up with a last purchase of HOD at 22.17 and had to run out the door [for lunch] so I put in a sell at 22.55 and sure enough, my shares are now gone.

Overall, I wind up ahead for the day, even having lost hundreds and hundreds of dollars this AM on HOU in very short order. Hahha, so I guess I'm good for today.

:poosie:

[civic_rida]

Anyone using rbc?

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
This was clearly fluke. Cuz I definitely can't blame skill. So it's gotta be luck. Well, OK, I'll be honest. I decided to treat HOD and HOU as opposites. I mean, they are opposites to begin with, so don't get too confused. But basically if my gut was telling my to buy HOD, I bought HOU and vice-versa. Hahahahhaha...

Nice, the Costanza strategy.

[max_boost]

haha

Z_Fan, I like your strategy. If I traded like that, I would be cruising my Ferrari right now. lol :rofl:

[Z_Fan]

I use RBC.

As for strategy, I figured I'd try the opposite thing since when I go the other way I wind up on the FAIL train anyhow...

Who knew!

I didn't keep any shares over night this time. But I think oil is going to run up again tomorrow. So, I guess if that is what I think, then I better get ready to buy HOD in the AM. :poosie:

[Inzane]

My SVM position sold this morning. 75% return... w00t!

ABX never made it to 50.00 though... it peaked at 49.83, then went on the decline down to 46 or so.

[aklalani]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


NO!

I am the worst trader in the world.

Hahah... :poosie:

I wish I could drink it up with you. But, alas, I don't even have that option to forget my woes. Teetoteller!

i think i am the worst trader. i just dont trade lol. still sitting on my 9000 shares of HOU. avg price is $10.34. Should have sold this morning at $10.50 but i am so greedy.

[DJ_NAV]

hey at least you hung on to yours... i sold mine for loss last week when i could have cashed out for profit today.

[eljefe]

well, European stocks were way down and appear to be making a comeback- Oil was up overnight, now down 50 or 60 cents. Early earnings reports are not bad, but with many many more to come. I sold my HOD late in the day at a good profit but I am thinking I should have held on. I just hate holding overnight and waking up to a rude surprise. 60 minutes and let the fun begin!

[bigbadboss101]

CDN $ 81.47 0.46
*US Gold 897.80 -13.90
*Lt Swt Crude 44.90 -0.83

[SilverRex]

Tuesday

so oil came down pretty hard after hitting into sub 48, what do you know its moving exactly in the upper channel, now that price is at around 44.81 its near its bottom of the channel which is somewhere around 43-44

if you believe this upward channel to continue then 43 would be the place to enter and it would find its way back to 49-50

however, what its very important is if this 43 level is breached, then this upward momentum channel that was started back on the 20th will have been broken, bearish forces will mount. the 42.98 to be exact is the 200 day so price needs to sustain below this to turn the short term pickture that much more negative.

how ever the thing that will be confusing is 44.21 is also a trendline support if you take the 33 dollar bottom as the starting line drawn up to current prices, but if you ignore it, it would be at 43. I would believe 43 is a much better support then 44.

Since I am in HOD at 48 dollar, I have to pick my exit. I'll get out at around low 44 and possibly buy HOU back if price hits around low 43s.

and if price keeps below 43 for too long I will exit and wait because now 40 or even 37 could easily be in the works.

I do caution that on the daily chart some indicators are showing a short term top or overbought so perhaps 40 or below could be in the picture soon.

as far as gold, some sell off has begun, I would say gold has to get above 904 in order to make another run at 920, other wise the trigger is below 894 that it should bring it down to 870. So range is 870-920

EDIT: in at 20.75 and out HOD at 24.75 :D

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bigbadboss101]

Don't even mention Oilexco, got out Friday at 0.07! Could be legit, NR coming. Or it can be P and D.

[DJ_NAV]

Cashed out hod, now looking at hou.

[natejj]

Can I get a woop woop for HOD?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

^i've done that before too! i'm sure many others have too. learn the lesson and double/triple check before placing order.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Just wait till the inventory report comes out tomorrow. Remember guys, it's the death quarter. $30 oil! Oh baby I can't wait! :thumbsup:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bigbadboss101]

Hmm buy more oil bear stocks? INventory report vs stimulus, production cut, and US market. Which way will it go?

[civic_rida]

I dont see it going into the 30's even with the inventory report coming out.
Remember last week Sam.

[max_boost]

The bulls had their little rally in bear season but that's over now. Demand destruction outweighs any OPEC supply cuts. The news keeps getting worse and worse. Deepening recession. Now that's reality.

Anyway, it's not going to go to $30 over night. It'll be a gradual, slow and painful downward spiral. Starting with the inventory report, quarter 4 earnings, consumer confidence AND financial meltdown part 2.

Watch for it!

:drama:

[civic_rida]

So buy hod this afternoon

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

im back in with oil at 43.36, knowing support is at 42.98

of course if one is to buy, then 43 dollar oil is it.

I will place a limit below 42.50

still bullish in my books until it breaks below 43 and holds below it.

for those already short near 48 good job you can give yourself some room to see how it plays out and go for a bigger fish towards 40 dollar oil

gold was rejected near 904 as I saw this morning, that area continues to be key if it wants to break higher ground, other wise look for a break below 896 which ever comes first will dictate direction

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Oh yeah, I have 3000 shares of HOD here. Initially I wanted $26 but lowered it to $25.50

We'll see what happens. I don't really want to let it go anyway because of the inventory report tomorrow. We are in the middle of winter people. No one is driving anywhere. Another 6 million+ barrel increase.

- Consumer confidence down.
- US home prices down 18% on average.
- 1/10 homes foreclosed or in the process of foreclosing
- 1/5 homes with mortgages are upside down.
- Unemployment rate expected to reach 10%.
- Unemployment insurance applications are going to surge.
- Obama stimulus will take time to work its way into the economy. - Fannie needs another $16billion.
- HSBC in HK is going to need cash injections (rumor).

Oh snap! lol

[max_boost]

Holy fuck my life! In the time it took me to write that message, oil spiked over $0.30!

Bought my HOD at $22
Sold at $25.50

Made my $10K back in one day!

Anyway, going to try to get back into HOD at $25 again and if I don't, I'll buy it at market price later in the day, just in case there's that freaky 12pm oil rally.

$30, just one time! Plus by the time we get there, April contracts will roll over and Obama stimulus will be in play.

It's just temporary hehe

[ExtraSlow]

If Max is correct, I'll buy more HOU later this week.
if we break upwards, I'm getting out for a while.
I expect a sawtooth pattern to emerge until springtime when slowing production and increasing demand will take over.

[SilverRex]

looking at silver spot, looks like something is going on, I think gold and silver is about to make another run towards their recent high

this will go well for oil also I believe.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow, thats 3 days in a row, oilexco jumped 80% today

I just saw it go from .275 to .30 in a seconds

That was probably on one buy order.



I'm buying HOU here. Like Silver Rex has been saying there is an obvious channel. As long as it doesn't breach to the downside of the trend line I am going to stay in.

Tomorrow will be the test after the inventory reports, but I've been noticing that oil is selling off less and less with each report.

The market in general still looks like it wants to rally. We have been churning through these levels on the Dow and S&P for a week now. If we close down today I might be worried some, but if we close up I think it will be the confirmation of a new uptrend in the market.

[max_boost]

I'll be buying in anticipation of the inventory report. Last week oil price dropped $3 before bouncing back. I expect another $2-3 drop because of it tomorrow. I'll probably sell shortly after in case the markets rally. I already got caught TWICE and it cost me huge.

[SilverRex]

the only thing that worries me is the original channel uptrendline from the 33 low and up has been broken,

the 43 price now is another trendline most notably the 200 day which was quite strong last week.

Therefore if 43 does hold I will be looking to move up my stop because if the original trendline that was broken at around 44.50 ish is valid, then price is probablly looking to retest that break and completely reverse, knowing there is a potential for this I will move my stop to break even to anticipate this risk.

coincidently the report (is it tomorrow?) might be the neck breaker here or if oil price can retrace enough that all it is doing is falling back to the line.

[max_boost]

The report is every Wednesday.

The report was released last Thursday because Monday was Martin Luther King day.

I remember EXACTLY how things unraveled last Thurs/Fri.

Thurs, oil down $3 to start the day and rallied back.
Fri, oil down $2 and rallied to close up $2.

Anyway, my plan is simple, use the inventory report and quickly make a buck. In case there is any market or gold rally, it'll drag oil back up so I don't want to get caught like I did on those two days.

Happy Trading. Off to my real day job now. Check back in an hour!

[DJ_NAV]

gold is just :zzz: barely moving!...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

SilverRex I take it you are just holding HOU...

Has your analysis changed any? I see oil is pretty much holding $43.50 ... trading mostly $43.40 to $43.70. Seems stable. No real wild swings.

What is your HOU stop at?

[in*10*se]

lol... what the hell did oilexco do? lol

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow, OILexco is gonna hit $1 this week if this keeps up. More like in 2 days

You gonna pick up 100,000 shares? You are not a pumper r u?:nut:

[Z_Fan]

I was gonna buy OIL this morning at .20. But I thought to myself, nah, it's already taken such a big jump in the last 24 hours. Nah.

STUPID. :nut:

Look at it now. Hell, I was gonna buy it at .26 when it kind of settled there...but didn't...LOL!

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
SilverRex I take it you are just holding HOU...

Has your analysis changed any? I see oil is pretty much holding $43.50 ... trading mostly $43.40 to $43.70. Seems stable. No real wild swings.

What is your HOU stop at?

Looks like things is settled and waiting for some news to drive it up or down.

I'm really banking on tomorrow's inventory report!


Originally posted by in*10*se
lol... what the hell did oilexco do? lol

You buying any of this stuff? haha

I'm staying away from Oilexco, I have no idea WTF is going on with them.

Look at the volumes! Approaching 40 million!! :nut: :dunno:

Their stock can fall faster than NT or rise faster than a rocket launching into space.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bigbadboss101]

I sold Friday at 0.07. Could be legit, some good news coming. Could be hype. If you can afford to gamble $5000 it might be worth a short. Was as low as 0.06 Friday it it's up 500+%

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

And suddenly OIL falls below $43.

What is your HOU stop at SilverRex?

[Z_Fan]

Damn. I was right the other day when I said I'm thinking HOU so buy HOD. LOL

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
why did u sell it at 0.07? might aswell go down with the ship

Wanted to buy it back at 0.05:banghead:

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
bloomberg shows oil at 43.58 no?

This second on the NYMEX, oil is...

$42.93
-$2.80

and 30 seconds later

$43.13
$-2.60

Fawk, I am hoping this is the start of the infamous 2PM ET rally!

[DJ_NAV]

so are you ppl jumpin onto HOU for the noon rally?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
And suddenly OIL falls below $43.

What is your HOU stop at SilverRex?

probablly around 42.50 oil

nothing wrong if 43 breaks, key is how long does it sustain below it is the question.

then again 42.50 oil puts HOU close to 8 bucks, maybe I will give myself a stop if it dips below 8 :)

EDIT: hmmm looks like it is hitting 42.49, sketchy, if it dips any lower I might call it a break, this break would be very bearish

[Z_Fan]

Oil tanking.

$42.30.

Edit. Dropped to $42.21 and is now at $42.27 and it looks as though we are going to see $41 oil today. Cuz it's going down down down in a hurry.

I think I will bail at $41.50 oil.

[SilverRex]

ok so oil looks like its break down further, if this 43 cant hold (now in the low 42s) I'll say this is a break and a break down means we are looking at 40 and 37 shortly

time to wait again

[max_boost]

HOD has gone crazy!

Death to the oil price! Too bad I'm not holding any though! :banghead:

Will buy in at 1:55pm regardless what the price is! lol

Just wait till tomorrow, under $40 oil, you can bet on it! :clap:

[SilverRex]

^

yes I was thinking 43 would hold but its true this means oil price still wants to test the 30s at least one more time.

so im out of HOU and waiting for at least around 37 oil.

or I would buy HOD at oil price at 42.50 but after it dips further to 41 to confirm the channel is no longer in play then the moment it rallies I can short it

[max_boost]

Back in to HOU @ $7.97, hoping for a rebound. The stops are tight on this one.

[Z_Fan]

I actually got stopped out of HOU. Lost a lot of money today. ;)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Back in to HOU @ $7.97, hoping for a rebound. The stops are tight on this one.

kinda scary though since its currently breaking below a very important support and ema. In fact it broke two uptrendline channels, one downtrendline (previously which became support) and also the 200 day. You just have to believe breaking all of this today is big.

saving grace would be, price can (50/50) rally back up to the break down point around 42.50-43.00 before swooning further down to 49.00

now i am targeting 39 (since it was the previous low for the march contract) and my ideal target entry is at 37 that puts

HOU at 5.8 :poosie: here we go

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

C'mon oil! Pull back so I can flip HOU and get into HOD for tomorrow!

[civic_rida]

no kiddin