$48 bbl oil

[sputnik]

Have we hit bottom yet?

The video in the link below is pretty sobering for what the future may hold.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/1/28/Canadian-stocks-fall-after-five-day-rally-as-oil-prices-slump.aspx

[Sugarphreak]

My prediction is it will not go much lower, maybe low 40's at worst.

The painful part is going to be the recovery, my best guess is that we will be lucky to see mid to high 50$ oil by the summer.

[killramos]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
My prediction is it will not go much lower, maybe low 40's at worst.


Damnit now we know its going to 20 bucks :banghead:

:rofl:

Interesting video, seems odd to combine the Cenovus comments with the glut talk? Very disconnected?

[sputnik]

I guess the real concern is how long prices stay below $60 and how long it takes for oil companies to adjust their production costs in order to be profitable.

[R154]

Sanjel has confirmed further lay-offs (internal source). Frac actvity is at an all time low.

Small producers that historically buy from us this time of year are upside down on financing.

Its looking ridiculous out there boys.

It is my personal belief that we have no seen the bottom yet. I am not saying 30 dollars, but I am saying that the OPEC countries and backroom deals are going to keep forcing the price low for as long as they can.

The US will only put on a strong face for a little while longer.

[ExtraSlow]

The actual dollar value of the bottom isn't the most interesting or scary number. It's how many months oil stays below $50.

A large number of mid to small size companies are deferring serious planning until Q2, for operations in Q3/4. If prices haven't at least stabilized by around May, then shit will start to get much more real for any of the companies that are sitting back.

[R154]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
The actual dollar value of the bottom isn't the most interesting or scary number. It's how many months oil stays below $50.

A large number of mid to small size companies are deferring serious planning until Q2, for operations in Q3/4. If prices haven't at least stabilized by around May, then shit will start to get much more real for any of the companies that are sitting back.

100% true.

[ercchry]

i think once the US guys start seeing expiries on their hedges we will start to see a few drop off, then perhaps oil will increase. once all the investments are cut and the high cost guys are dead things could get pretty interesting if OPEC then cuts production

[R154]

A buddy over at crescent point said they have a couple axemen conducting "audits" there as we speak... lay-offs definitely to follow.

[Speed_69]

I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. There was strong support levels at $45/bbl and with WTI breaking through that and closing near $44 today, I think we're going to see $35/bbl before there is a small rebound. Perhaps in June when OPEC meets again and if they agree to reduce production.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by ercchry
i think once the US guys start seeing expiries on their hedges we will start to see a few drop off, then perhaps oil will increase. once all the investments are cut and the high cost guys are dead things could get pretty interesting if OPEC then cuts production

I'm pretty sure OPEC's game is productions outside of OPEC dies off to raise prices. They won't cut production themselves.

[joegrang]

The big problem is that even with current production there is a surplus (last week US inventory was up 3x what was estimated). The low prices are only trimming capital ex which means supply will continue to grow but at a lower pace. I'm guessing companies are drilling their best prospects rather than drilling only to replace decline rates. What is needed is a huge demand spike or new supply stops all together- no capex at all.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Xtrema


I'm pretty sure OPEC's game is productions outside of OPEC dies off to raise prices. They won't cut production themselves.

they will have to eventually though or some opec members wont survive either, i dont think it will happen this summer... but once they have killed off enough competition the ball is back in their court and a cut would send oil sky high

[Arash Boodagh]

In before high IQ members make following formula claim;
Largest building in the world = Saudi Arabia = Saudi Royal family empire = Setting global oil prices like a boss.

[killramos]

Originally posted by joegrang
The big problem is that even with current production there is a surplus (last week US inventory was up 3x what was estimated). The low prices are only trimming capital ex which means supply will continue to grow but at a lower pace. I'm guessing companies are drilling their best prospects rather than drilling only to replace decline rates. What is needed is a huge demand spike or new supply stops all together- no capex at all.

It's not surprising. Everyone was still going hard into Q4, some areas it takes a fair amount of time to get wells completed, tied in, flowing inline.

I know we have just recently got some q4 2014 wells online. Q1 is barely started.

Takes a long time to steer a big ship. Let's talk after breakup.

And Arash fuck off. You have no place in this thread.

[Arash Boodagh]

I predict oil will be under $50 for over a year.


Originally posted by killramos
And Arash fuck off. You have no place in this thread. Youre just butt hurt because youre beloved isreal is part of the problem in you losing future income.

[A790]

Originally posted by killramos
And Arash fuck off. You have no place in this thread.
Put him on ignore and stop engaging him. All you're doing is giving the parasite more fuel to feed off of.

[HiTempguy1]

Well apparently the oil companies haven't heard the news, because gas just spiked 12c/L in deadmonton for no f'in reason :banghead:

[avishal26]

^ Yeah it spiked 8cents here in Calgary... not sure why?

Only thing I can think of is the CAD devaluing below 80cents vs USD today.

[r3ccOs]

Union in talks of strikes at US refineries

[rob the knob]

nice weather, i ride my bicycle more when gas increases in price.

[rob the knob]

Original Post Removed. (Please read the Forum Rules and Terms of Use (http://forums.beyond.ca/articles.php?action=data&item=1) before posting again, or risk getting banned).

[01RedDX]

El Badri musing about $200 oil on Monday was enough to cause a speculative spike.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-27/opec-s-el-badri-says-200-oil-possible-with-lack-of-investment

It's all so stupid and arbitrary. I wish someone would come up with a fair and sensible way to regulate prices.

[01RedDX]

New low:

http://i.imgur.com/8z3HQAs.jpg

[Thales of Miletus]

Originally posted by HiTempguy1
Well apparently the oil companies haven't heard the news, because gas just spiked 12c/L in deadmonton for no f'in reason :banghead:

Must be only in your hood, 66 cents at Costco.

Remember when gas was 32 cents a gallon. Wouldn't it be nice to fill your vehicle for 5 bucks.

[nismodrifter]

Originally posted by HiTempguy1
Well apparently the oil companies haven't heard the news, because gas just spiked 12c/L in deadmonton for no f'in reason :banghead:

Noticed this on my way home from work today. 66.3 cents this morning, on the drive back 81 cents at every gas station. WTF?

[GQBalla]

Originally posted by rob the knob
I'm making over (($))7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...

w_w_w.j_o_b_s_v_a_l_t.c_o_mONLY

PLEASE REMOVE THE ONLY.

Post your pay stubs. Market your scams somewhere else

[Thales of Miletus]

Originally posted by nismodrifter


Noticed this on my way home from work today. 66.3 cents this morning, on the drive back 81 cents at every gas station. WTF?

There is a price hike alert, but check the link below for the places that still have it cheap.

http://www.edmontongasprices.com/

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by nismodrifter


Noticed this on my way home from work today. 66.3 cents this morning, on the drive back 81 cents at every gas station. WTF?

Commodity Units Price Change % Change Contract Time(ET)
RBOB Gasoline USd/gal. 135.80 +1.30 +0.97% Feb 15 13:39:13

This is the number you should look at for gas. Not WTI.

RBOB has been on a rally hard this week which explains ur price jump.

[16hypen3sp]

Originally posted by icky2unk


Commodity Units Price Change % Change Contract Time(ET)
RBOB Gasoline USd/gal. 135.80 +1.30 +0.97% Feb 15 13:39:13

This is the number you should look at for gas. Not WTI.

RBOB has been on a rally hard this week which explains ur price jump.

Whats the best website to follow those numbers?

[KO22]

Originally posted by 16hypen3sp


Whats the best website to follow those numbers?

I use marketwatch.com

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by 16hypen3sp


Whats the best website to follow those numbers?

I just grabbed it from bloomberg energy hah.

But you can find the futures traded in many locations.

It's a function of the refined product cost (RBOB) and the spread between (Brent vs WTi). Both of these impact the price at the pump.

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by icky2unk


It's a function of the refined product cost (RBOB) and the spread between (Brent vs WTi). Both of these impact the price at the pump.

Interesting. I learned something new today, thanks!

Nonetheless, I expect the cost of gas to go down when both Brent and WTI go down 4%, not up...

Somebody mentioned a refinery strike in the US, that would definitely do it.

[killramos]

Keystone is actually on Obama's desk for the first time. No more speculation or bullshit. He either signs the bill or vetoes it now.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/keystone-xl-pipeline-bill-passes-in-u-s-senate-faces-obama-veto-1.2936564

[Disoblige]

^^ Pretty obvious Obama is going to veto it. No question about it.

[killramos]

Originally posted by Disoblige
^^ Pretty obvious Obama is going to veto it. No question about it.

Yea but hes been such a piece of shit beating around the bush i just want him to do it already.

So much talk and no action from him.

He should have just denied this 4 years ago when the Republicans weren't so myopic about it. They might have given up. Now they are just going to tie it to some bill about whether they keep the lights in the whitehouse on or not or some bs.

[01RedDX]

^ Your suggestion that the repugs are capable of any sort of reasonable compromise is laughable.

[16hypen3sp]

Originally posted by KO22


I use marketwatch.com

MarketWatch seems cool. Thanks.

[killramos]

Originally posted by 01RedDX
^ Your suggestion that the repugs are capable of any sort of reasonable compromise is laughable.

Even more laughable is how you read into my post about "turning off all the lights on the White House or something " as me calling the tepuicans reasonable. Get a grip.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by killramos


Yea but hes been such a piece of shit beating around the bush i just want him to do it already.

So much talk and no action from him.

He should have just denied this 4 years ago when the Republicans weren't so myopic about it. They might have given up. Now they are just going to tie it to some bill about whether they keep the lights in the whitehouse on or not or some bs.

Keystone may have a chance if Dem didn't lose senate. Now it has 0 chance unless Republican beat Hilary for the seat.

The only power left for Obama is the veto. He will use it until he see something he likes.

[colinderksen]

Might be a dumb question/probably is but will the price of oil affect the willingness for the companies to spend the dollars on building these large pipeline projects ASAP if they are approved?

[killramos]

Originally posted by colinderksen
Might be a dumb question/probably is but will the price of oil affect the willingness for the companies to spend the dollars on building these large pipeline projects ASAP if they are approved?

No

Project economics are barely affected imo

[icky2unk]

So what do you guys think..

is it over or just anoter tease before another crash?

[KO22]

I hope it's over. Do I think we've seen the worst... Na

[themack89]

Originally posted by icky2unk
So what do you guys think..

is it over or just anoter tease before another crash?

Where is 89coupe's chart analysis when you need it? :rofl:

[Thales of Miletus]

I hope Oil Stays cheap. It is not good for Albertan's to have hyper inflation.

An apartment should not cost $1300 a month in Edmonton yet $800 a month in Palm Springs.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Thales of Miletus
I hope Oil Stays cheap. It is not good for Albertan's to have hyper inflation.

An apartment should not cost $1300 a month in Edmonton yet $800 a month in Palm Springs.

I hope oil breaks $200.

[killramos]

God the market is irritating, last week people were talking about the end of the world and everyone has already forgotten. oil stocks up 10+% a day.

Ridiculous.

[ExtraSlow]

At this point, I'll almost be disappointed if we see prices go up soon. The long term cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. If we see even a partial recovery in the next few months, it'll send the wrong signal, and companies won't drop as many projects.

I've always worked more on gas projects than oil ones, so I'd be happier on an emotional level with oil under $50 for the whole year if gas can sneak up a little and sustain any gains it makes.

[R154]

9 different big contractors have come to us asking about pricing for equip. on a lift station. SMALL equipment.400K<.

Its getting dry out there. Bidding on small municipal stuff... good lord.

[icky2unk]

Inventories out tomorrow, tempted to take some off the table today

[ercchry]

Originally posted by icky2unk
Inventories out tomorrow, tempted to take some off the table today

yikes, well im guessing with the last 3 days wall street is expecting good things?

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by ercchry


yikes, well im guessing with the last 3 days wall street is expecting good things?

Well past three days I think have just been a little good news, rig counts in the US, refinery strikes and isis invasion.

Inventories are the real story of whether supply is coming down or not.

I've got 30k shares I picked up of TBE at 66 cents last week. Thinking it may be a good flip right now...

tempting tempting. It is in TSFA so it's not like I have to pay taxes!

[ercchry]

but that dividend :drool:

[suntan]

Held CPG for a few days, already made 10%. Fuuu.....

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by ercchry
but that dividend :drool:

haha that penny a month doe! :P

[icky2unk]

oh wow 91 cents now... think i'm going to take some off the table.

Crude ripping through 52

[ercchry]

so close to even for me... im at $1.04 on TBE

[killramos]

PWT is up 25% today alone now.

What happened to it being a complete train wreck? People forget so soon...

I dont even know what to think about today at this point.

[icky2unk]

Just ripped through 53 like it was nothing... on to 54!

[ercchry]

damn, we can almost post in the $58 oil thread again :rofl:

[icky2unk]

It's crazy...

3 days crude has moved almost 10 bucks lol

[M.alex]

and then when it moves back down everybody will around around like a chicken w/o their head again.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by M.alex
and then when it moves back down everybody will around around like a chicken w/o their head again.

Thank god for stop losses :D

[ercchry]

Originally posted by M.alex
and then when it moves back down everybody will around around like a chicken w/o their head again.

im counting on it, if it just keeps climbing i'll be sad that i sold so much today :rofl:

[suntan]

Originally posted by killramos
PWT is up 25% today alone now.

What happened to it being a complete train wreck? People forget so soon...

I dont even know what to think about today at this point. It'll crash again if oil goes down below $50.

Hint... hint...

[r3ccOs]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/03/politics/9-11-attacks-saudi-arabia-involvement/

Its time for the US to occupy Saudi and impose "freedom"! and sanction trade...

I see oil coming back soon

[adam c]

Originally posted by Thales of Miletus
I hope Oil Stays cheap. It is not good for Albertan's to have hyper inflation.

An apartment should not cost $1300 a month in Edmonton yet $800 a month in Palm Springs.

You're comparing a state that has the population of Canada, it's about supply and demand, if Edmonton has an over saturation of housing then prices would come down

[ZenOps]

Aaand, it lost $4 in one day again.

[Thales of Miletus]

Originally posted by adam c


You're comparing a state that has the population of Canada, it's about supply and demand, if Edmonton has an over saturation of housing then prices would come down

I don't know if it is accurate to say that housing prices are about supply and demand. I think banks set the value of real estate. Banks want people to be in servitude forever.

There was a time when a man could support a family, and buy a house in two years, on his income alone.

[R154]

There was also a time when man could own black people. Things change.

[Thales of Miletus]

Originally posted by R154
There was also a time when man could own black people. Things change.

There was also a time when people got vaccinated against Polio and Measles.

Things change alright.

[R154]

No every decision made makes sense.

[ExtraSlow]

When were people buying houses and paying them off in two years while supporting a family on one income?
My parents bought a house in the early seventies in Airdrie, which was hardly a hotspot, got a 25 year mortgage, and it took them the full 25 years to pay it off. Not saying someone couldn't have done it faster, but your comment seems like a huge exaggeration.

[killramos]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
When were people buying houses and paying them off in two years while supporting a family on one income?
My parents bought a house in the early seventies in Airdrie, which was hardly a hotspot, got a 25 year mortgage, and it took them the full 25 years to pay it off. Not saying someone couldn't have done it faster, but your comment seems like a huge exaggeration.

I am pretty sure people still can do that as a CEO or business owner. All depends on what you consider normal or what kind of house you want. Basically as per usual Thales is out to lunch re: reality.

Mobile homes just outside the city go for like 40 grand. Someone making 80k / year (Man working only as apparently Thales still lives in the 50's) could probably pay that off in 2 years with some discipline. Someone who makes 40 would take probably 4 assuming no down payment.

:dunno:

[mr2mike]

Pump price by my house. 92.9 Wtf?!
Up 20 cents too quickly imo. It's not like its $80/bbl again.

[J-D]

Originally posted by killramos


I am pretty sure people still can do that as a CEO or business owner. All depends on what you consider normal or what kind of house you want. Basically as per usual Thales is out to lunch re: reality.

Mobile homes just outside the city go for like 40 grand. Someone making 80k / year (Man working only as apparently Thales still lives in the 50's) could probably pay that off in 2 years with some discipline. Someone who makes 40 would take probably 4 assuming no down payment.

:dunno:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=15110101

Only $495 a month :rofl:

[roopi]

Originally posted by Thales of Miletus


I don't know if it is accurate to say that housing prices are about supply and demand. I think banks set the value of real estate. Banks want people to be in servitude forever.

There was a time when a man could support a family, and buy a house in two years, on his income alone.

:confused:

How would banks set the prices of houses? :nut:

[Thales of Miletus]

Originally posted by roopi


:confused:

How would banks set the prices of houses? :nut:

By approving Mortgages and setting rates.

Ever hear of Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae?

[SKR]

Goddamnit you fuckheads don't wreck another thread

[J.M.]

Originally posted by SKR
Goddamnit you fuckheads don't wreck another thread

Too late :rofl:

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Pump price by my house. 92.9 Wtf?!
Up 20 cents too quickly imo. It's not like its $80/bbl again.

Refineries are on strike (which have an impact on gasoline prices at the pump). Short term increase is demand as a result of only a few refineries staying up.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Thales of Miletus


By approving Mortgages and setting rates.

Ever hear of Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae?

Move to another city please for the love of god since you hate everything Oil and Calgary. Go move somewhere and use your high IQ to change the world you genius you

[killramos]

Back up to nearly 51 again. So much for the sub 40 crash that was to follow.

I think we see net gains but otherwise a volatile sawtooth for the next 3-4 months personally.

I am big on the theory that the glut turns to a shortage in a hurry. :dunno:

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by killramos
Back up to nearly 51 again. So much for the sub 40 crash that was to follow.

I think we see net gains but otherwise a volatile sawtooth for the next 3-4 months personally.

I am big on the theory that the glut turns to a shortage in a hurry. :dunno:

EIA is publishing a report on the 9th here in regards to US Shale Production.

That is something that will move the market hard I would think.

Should be interesting.

[01RedDX]

I think we can say goodbye to low oil prices for a while. There are major military escalations happening in Syria and Ukraine right now.

[r3ccOs]

Originally posted by 01RedDX
I think we can say goodbye to low oil prices for a while. There are major military escalations happening in Syria and Ukraine right now.

I love the smell of freedom in the morning

[ZenOps]

Based on what assumption? That high oil prices will hurt Putin?

WWII was a different war, with different players. Arguably, Russia was on our side for that one.

Low oil prices will probably hurt Putin, and help America. If war breaks out and people flee to the US dollar, I can imagine that oil will do the exact opposite - It will fall even further.

[01RedDX]

Well, Zennie, my assumption is based on actual precedents: historically, strife in the Middle East and/or strife in Russia = high oil prices.

Sorry if my assumptions do not factor in "nickels, pennies blah blah blah Rob Anders."

Most of the price is based on speculation, which what we're both doing, speculating. Mine, however, is more reality-based.

[ZenOps]

Side note: Today, the CME raised margins on silver, brent crude and RBOB.

This could easily push oil into the mid-35's if they start stacking margins. Speculator forced sell on margin call.

Actual oil production? Irrelevant to price.

Blame Obama I guess, or Rob Anders.

[16hypen3sp]

Not sure if posted somewhere before but the AB gov has an online survey about the upcoming budget.

https://extranet.gov.ab.ca/opinio6/s?s=24556

[killramos]

^ That is a great survey. I encourage everyone to fill it out regardless of political leanings.

Alot of important concepts listed in there.

[HiTempguy1]

That survey is fucking awful and biased :nut:

No one should be filling out that survey, it is intentionally built to get the answers the cons want, not what this province needs.

[ercchry]

Coles notes on the survey... "tax and slash, cause we thought $100/bbl oil was sustainable"

[Cos]

Originally posted by HiTempguy1
That survey is fucking awful and biased :nut:

No one should be filling out that survey, it is intentionally built to get the answers the cons want, not what this province needs.

Yeah I was glad I wasnt the only one who read it that way.

[ercchry]

this gem probably bothers me the most:


It is okay for government to borrow money for hospitals, roads and schools because future generations will also enjoy them and should share the cost.

....you borrow now, cause its cheaper to build in a downturn (and cheaper than 10 years from now)... not to mention we needed most of this shit 10 years ago :nut:

[mr2mike]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/cnrls-warning-to-oil-sands-cut-costs-or-face-death-spiral/article23108318/

The “made in Fort McMurray cost” of doing business has risen too quickly and must end, Steve Laut of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. told members of the local Chamber of Commerce.

Mr. Laut said oil sands producers were making three times the profit in 2004 when a barrel of oil cost about $40 (U.S.) than it did when the price hit close to $100 in 2013.

[A790]

Those that argue against economic diversification are ignoring the coming future and living in the past.

If there was ever a time to do it, now would be it.

[icky2unk]

Emergency OPEC meeting in the works.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/669d962a-bb62-11e4-a31f-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Sav0dcMC

[Disoblige]

That link makes you sign up just to read the article.
Just Google "Oil slide could trigger Opec emergency meeting" I guess.