Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[Buster]

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Where do I vote for the government locking down everyone else?

This is the theory most people go by.

Right now, covid is basically spread by the lifestyle equivalent of nimby.

[AndyL]

It's aimed at anti-vaxxers but so appropriate to anti mask crowd

Dunning Kruger Nation And The Disparagement Of Expertise

We live in Dunning Kruger nation.

What do I mean?

A variety of very loud “confident idiots” — anti-vaxxers, homebirth advocates, climate change deniers — actually think they know more than the experts in the respective fields.

Where did they get that idea?

I’ll let Dr. David Dunning explain it:

“In 1999, in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, my then graduate student Justin Kruger and I published a paper that documented how, in many areas of life, incompetent people do not recognize — scratch that, cannot recognize — just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands this lack of self-insight: For poor performers to recognize their ineptitude would require them to possess the very expertise they lack…“

In other words, those who know the least about a particular topic — vaccines, childbirth, climate change — actually believe they know the most. They simply don’t know what they don’t know.

Indeed:

“What’s curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious. Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge.“

The expertise of immunologists, obstetricians and climate scientists is disparaged by confident idiots who believe their ability to use Google is the equivalent of any PhD.

If you’ve ever tangled with an anti-vaxxer, you know that it’s very difficult to argue with him or her. You can’t reason confident idiots out of a position that they didn’t reason themselves into in the first place. They often don’t understand the terms of the specific scientific discipline, the principles of scientific inquiry or even the rudiments of logic.

And yet they think they are experts, scorning the expertise of real experts.

Why are so many anti-vaxxers, homebirth advocates and climate change deniers “confident idiots”?

“Some of our most stubborn misbeliefs arise … from the very values and philosophies that define who we are as individuals. Each of us possesses certain foundational beliefs — narratives about the self, ideas about the social order—that essentially cannot be violated: To contradict them would call into question our very self-worth. As such, these views demand fealty from other opinions. And any information that we glean from the world is amended, distorted, diminished, or forgotten in order to make sure that these sacrosanct beliefs remain whole and unharmed.“

In some cases those cherished beliefs are that “corporations are evil,” “natural is always best,” or “government is the enemy.” In many cases the cherished belief is that the confident idiot is both smarter and less gullible than the rest of us poor “sheeple.”

How can the rest of us protect ourselves from confident idiots who parachute into websites, Facebook pages and message boards in order to “educate” the rest of us?

1. The first step is to recognize that those who know the least often think they know the most. That’s why professional qualifications are so important. That doesn’t mean that experts know everything, or that they are always right, but it does mean that they have a strong foundation from which to assess claims about vaccines, childbirth or climate change.

2. Be wary of anyone who claims that formal education is unnecessary, or that experts ignore the evidence of cherry picked scientific papers that don’t represent the consensus of knowledge on the subject.

3. Be wary of anyone who lacks formal education in the topic but nevertheless makes claims about vaccines, childbirth or climate.

4. Don’t “trust” any natural process simply because it is natural.

5. Resist the temptation to succumb to flattery. Don’t let the desire to feel superior to other people make susceptible to Internet propaganda.

We live in Dunning Kruger nation. The disparagement of expertise may boost the self esteem of its promoters, but often harms everyone else. What confident idiots know rarely represents the sum total of all knowledge on the subject; that’s why real expertise is worthy of respect.

Those who wish to be acknowledged as “educated” can’t take a short cut of an internet connection. They have to do the hard work of learning science, statistics and the actual subject under discussion, whether it is immunology, obstetrics or climate science; without that formal education, they are merely confident idiots.

[rage2]

Lockdown is going to do fuck all. Huge number of people DGAF at this point, and the ones testing positive aren't even cooperating with contact tracers. Locking shit down means everything moves to people's homes. Look on your FB at all the halloween parties this weekend haha.

[spikerS]

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Lockdown is going to do fuck all. Huge number of people DGAF at this point, and the ones testing positive aren't even cooperating with contact tracers. Locking shit down means everything moves to people's homes. Look on your FB at all the halloween parties this weekend haha.

Truth.

My household is a bunch of hermits anyhow, so a lockdown literally means nothing to us.

[Buster]

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Lockdown is going to do fuck all. Huge number of people DGAF at this point, and the ones testing positive aren't even cooperating with contact tracers. Locking shit down means everything moves to people's homes. Look on your FB at all the halloween parties this weekend haha.

There is a victim of your own success component ot this. Treatments and understanding of the disease are getting better, so mortality is improving substantially. We are also largely succeeding in the mask thing, which is giving people a false sense of security. "If I am masked and have sanitizer, I'm safe!". Masks are a good idea, but they are only moderately effective.

Restaurants and gyms need to close ASAP.

[pheoxs]

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Lockdown is going to do fuck all. Huge number of people DGAF at this point, and the ones testing positive aren't even cooperating with contact tracers. Locking shit down means everything moves to people's homes. Look on your FB at all the halloween parties this weekend haha.

I think thats why there needs to be restrictions though. I'm not saying full lock down again, but cut social events and limit other situations (restaurants, stores, weddings, etc). Anecdotally it worked this past weekend, I had multiple friends going to throw larger house parties but once the 15 person limit came into effect they scaled them back. They were still a bit over but going from 30-40 down to 15-20 is still an improvement.

The same thing happened with mask usage, when it was 'recommended' very few people used them but once it was mandatory it became a lot more used. Trim shit back a bit so that it doesn't keep spiraling and then put us in a position where we have to lock down again. Or at least start enforcing things that are already in place.

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Restaurants and gyms need to close ASAP.

Gyms are coming, prob by end of next week is my guess.

[tirebob]

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$1 bob.

I am much more valuable than that...

[killramos]

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There is a victim of your own success component ot this. Treatments and understanding of the disease are getting better, so mortality is improving substantially. We are also largely succeeding in the mask thing, which is giving people a false sense of security. "If I am masked and have sanitizer, I'm safe!". Masks are a good idea, but they are only moderately effective.

Restaurants and gyms need to close ASAP.

I know you are a data guy. I thought the data has been pretty conclusive on restaurants being an insignificant source of spread?

What we should do is actually strictly enforce our health orders.

My personal stance has always been (not just for coronavirus), I hate stupid laws, but once they are a law then they should be strictly enforced. And if people don’t like it we need to have conversations about the laws themselves.

Loosely enforced rules just punish honest people.

[Xtrema]

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Kudos to CBC for actually publishing the % of positive, instead of raw numbers.

The way the cases are reported are scary (which I assume it's their primary focus).

I have already read into percentage. We will have more cases, always will. But it's the percentage that matters to see how fast/bad it's spreading.

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4000 a day and we still won't be locked down again

Only a prediction and one that trying to scare the public back into compliance instead of relaxing.

I'm sure if hospitals are overrun, lock down will happen again and it will only happen when people start dying more.

Because otherwise, like Buster said, we are a victim of our own success. So we have to kill more people before they get back in line, so be it.

[The_Rural_Juror]

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My personal stance has always been (not just for coronavirus), I hate stupid laws, but once they are a law then they should be strictly enforced. And if people don’t like it we need to have conversations about the laws themselves.
Loosely enforced rules just punish honest people.

This is the way.

[NoSup4U]

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Restaurants and gyms need to close ASAP.

Based on what? Data already shows restaurants aren't a significant cause of spread.

[vengie]

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Restaurants and gyms need to close ASAP.

This will mark a death sentence for the majority of gyms and restaurants.

Re- opening as is was already difficult enough.
6 months of no revenue was crippling.

[Buster]

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Based on what? Data already shows restaurants aren't a significant cause of spread.

Can you post the data...I'll review. I don't really keep up on the restaurant specific data TBH, but more than happy to review.

[ExtraSlow]

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My personal stance has always been (not just for coronavirus), I hate stupid laws, but once they are a law then they should be strictly enforced. And if people don’t like it we need to have conversations about the laws themselves. Loosely enforced rules just punish honest people.

Truth man. Reps sent.

[Xtrema]

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Based on what? Data already shows restaurants aren't a significant cause of spread.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6936a5_x

TLDR, a very limited early look and data size is lacking but among the infected, 2x more likely has done dine in.

Also assuming the restaurant follows the current guideline, it is not a significant cause of the spread, which is also true.

I also find this quote from a infectious disease expert interesting.....

"Specific spreading events have been linked to indoor dining, so viral transmission with indoor dining is likely contributing to cases, to some degree. In addition, people who dine indoors at restaurants may also be less risk-averse in their behavior beyond restaurants, compared to people who are avoiding indoor restaurant dining entirely right now,"

That said, I have done dine-in about 4 times last months. Seems like the etiquette seems to be mask up whenever you are not at your table.

[NoSup4U]

Graph is in the article for Ontario. Don't have Alberta data, but Hinshaw did mention during a briefing last week that we are at a couple of % of cases from restaurants (can't recall the exact number, but singal digit).

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/bars-resta...onto-1.5166676

[beyond_ban]

Is there any data showing gyms are spreading the virus in such a manner that they need to be shut down? I know a few boutique fitness studios caused quite a bit of spread, but have any full sized gyms been shut down around town? I don't know what i'd do if GYMVMT was to get shut again, especially with the cold coming making outdoor workouts less feasible.

[ExtraSlow]

Gyms feel (to me) like the highest possible risk business, but I also have no data at all to back that up.

[Xtrema]

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Graph is in the article for Ontario. Don't have Alberta data, but Hinshaw did mention during a briefing last week that we are at a couple of % of cases from restaurants (can't recall the exact number, but singal digit).

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/bars-resta...onto-1.5166676

Yeah, again if restaurant follows the health guidelines, it's less risky. But if they don't it's a problem. TO had to shut down a few restaurants that is still offering buffets and caused outbreaks.

For example, Popeyes has a green/red card system and basically staff go to town to clean it after each patron and 50% of seating blocked off. So this give people a bit more confidence.

[vengie]

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Gyms feel (to me) like the highest possible risk business, but I also have no data at all to back that up.

Can confirm.

Source: I own a gym.

We are definitely learning a lot though.