Imminent Housing Crash

[BigMass]

[eglove]

Originally posted by Mibz
It's imminent.

[blownz]

Home builders of houses over $1M are dead right now in Calgary. I know one that is about to open a show home at about $2M and is concerned. Lots of people have lots but are putting construction on hold waiting to see how things go. And many business owners don't want to tie up cash in new home construction when it may be needed elsewhere.

If this lasts long enough the prices will come down. Still not a crash, but 10% is possible and that would hurt a lot of people.

[ga16i]

Originally posted by roopi


I believe it is north of 22x/Stoney:

http://www.hopewellresidential.com/d...s_location.pdf

You sir look to be correct, my mistake.

[phreezee]

Originally posted by blownz
Home builders of houses over $1M are dead right now in Calgary. I know one that is about to open a show home at about $2M and is concerned.

What are they offering in incentives? I thought I read somewhere that home builders average 25% margin, so a 10% drop isn't the end of the world. The other tactic for more liquid builders is to just do spec homes to finish up operations in one area and move on.

[gwill]

^its actually the opposite of what you think. Spec homes leave more liability for the builder. In a slow market they'll spec less and concentrate more on presales. It doesn't cost them anything to sit on empty lots until a buyer comes around.

It's a gamble no matter what they do. Spec lots and carry lots of inventory hoping you sell them all or spec less and have no liability but risk losing the buyers who want specs.

[Buster]

Originally posted by blownz
Home builders of houses over $1M are dead right now in Calgary. I know one that is about to open a show home at about $2M and is concerned. Lots of people have lots but are putting construction on hold waiting to see how things go. And many business owners don't want to tie up cash in new home construction when it may be needed elsewhere.

If this lasts long enough the prices will come down. Still not a crash, but 10% is possible and that would hurt a lot of people.

I would LOVE sometime to see a correlation between income and home value.

I'm in the market for a $1.5MM house, and the number of people in this city with homes that are $1.5MM to say $2.5MM is pretty shocking.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Buster


I would LOVE sometime to see a correlation between income and home value.

Aspen Woods has a average household income of $133K in 2006. So I would think average would be around $200K at this point.

I think the spread of single home there is $600K to $4M.

[Buster]

People are buying million dollar homes on a $133M family income?

wow.

If everyone viewed leverage like i did, houses would be a lot cheaper...lol. No wonder it's frustrating.

[roopi]

Originally posted by Buster
People are buying million dollar homes on a $133M family income?

wow.

If everyone viewed leverage like i did, houses would be a lot cheaper...lol. No wonder it's frustrating.

Not quite what he said. Those numbers can be deciphered a few different ways based on the years.

Also nothing wrong with buying a million dollar home on a 133k salary if your down payment is significant enough.

[phreezee]

Well the minimum down for +1M is 20%. I suspect that anyone who owned a detached house pre 2005 has enough equity for that downpayment. I see a lot of 600k houses with $120-180k worth of cars in the driveway, so if you forego the car payments of $1-2k/month, lots of people can afford +1M homes.

[max_boost]

Over 25 years, many things become affordable.

Everyone is always concerned about their neighbors. If sugarphreak's house sells, recession, what recession?! haha

[Toma]

Originally posted by rage2

Alberta will be a scary place to live/work if prices manage to drop 50%.

Happened in the US, people survived.

I bought a previous to crash $330k Condo for $50k after the crash.

I'm with Tik.... bring on 50%, or more!!

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Buster
People are buying million dollar homes on a $133M family income?

wow.

If everyone viewed leverage like i did, houses would be a lot cheaper...lol. No wonder it's frustrating.

well lets average here:

3 bedroom single detach
lowest:$550K
highest:$3M (taking out 2 $6M+ behemoths)

average $1.7M

Average $200K family income, 35% to taxes = take home $130K

Say $1M mortgage, mth payment + tax + util = $6k/mth or $72K/yr.

you still have almost $60K to live on.


not impossible for a couple with $100k jobs if they built up $700K equity from previous houses. but not the level of levrage everyone can stomach.

[BerserkerCatSplat]

Originally posted by roopi


Not quite what he said. Those numbers can be deciphered a few different ways based on the years.

Also nothing wrong with buying a million dollar home on a 133k salary if your down payment is significant enough.

That's an important concept - the cost of the house isn't what's of concern, it's the value of the mortgage.

[blownz]

Originally posted by Xtrema


well lets average here:

3 bedroom single detach
lowest:$550K
highest:$3M (taking out 2 $6M+ behemoths)

average $1.7M

Average $200K family income, 35% to taxes = take home $130K

Say $1M mortgage, mth payment + tax + util = $6k/mth or $72K/yr.

you still have almost $60K to live on.


not impossible for a couple with $100k jobs if they built up $700K equity from previous houses. but not the level of levrage everyone can stomach.

I don't think there is any way a family earning $200K a year can comfortably carry a $1M mortgage. And they couldn't live off of $60K a year. Living in a high end neighborhood means more expensive lifestyle all around. I am not living that type of lifestyle and I have a hard time spending less than $6K a month and my house, 2 vehicles and RV are all paid off. And that isn't including vacationing or other things over monthly living expenses.

The problem with many neighborhoods out there is that the only reason the people there can afford to live there is that they bought in 10+ years ago. Most couldn't buy the same place today if they had to.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[birdman86]

Originally posted by Toma


Happened in the US, people survived.

I bought a previous to crash $330k Condo for $50k after the crash.

I'm with Tik.... bring on 50%, or more!!

Gimme a couple months, almost got this student loan cleared off then I'm good to go

[leftwing]

Originally posted by blownz

I am not living that type of lifestyle and I have a hard time spending less than $6K a month and my house, 2 vehicles and RV are all paid off. And that isn't including vacationing or other things over monthly living expenses.

#humblebrag



$100K salary X 2 people is about $12K take home a month. the mortgage payment on $1M mortgage (@2.5%) is $4600. Seems pretty do-able to me. Just because you have a nice house/make a lot of money doesn't mean you have huge car payments. If you drive through nice neighbourhoods yeah, you will see a lot of high end vehicles, but you will still see Dodge's, Toyota's, Ford's etc in the driveway's.

[ExtraSlow]

Vehicle payments? What are those. #humblebrag.