Notley threatening sanctions on BC for inhibiting Kinder expansion.

[killramos]

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In my own opinion, the best way is always via the pocket book. Choke the wells back and see $2/L in Vancouver by Summer. $2.50/L in Victoria.

Sure you choke your well back then I’ll choke mine back, maybe.

We aren’t a Cartel. That doesn’t work.

[Buster]

A trade war would have to target BC exports, not Alberta exports.

[HiTempguy1]

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Sure you choke your well back then I’ll choke mine back, maybe.

We aren’t a Cartel. That doesn’t work.

There actually is the perfect solution to this issue.

The current lines can keep going. Just only allow them to transport dilbit/oil.

Two birds with one stone, cuts off refined products to BC, hitting their voters where it hurts, and increasing the amount of bitumen going down the pipes, increasing revenue for the oil companies. This is what the National Post suggested versus just completely cutting off the flow of oil. Gas prices would jump to over $2/L in BC.

[killramos]

And who is going to pay the penalty to the refiners who have contracts for firm service on that line?

This isn’t China or Saudi Arabia, all of this infrastructure is run by independent corporations who have obligations to producers and refiners to ship their product and if you want to force them to do something you better be ready to pay through the nose for that privilege. You help one aspect of the industry and fuck over another.

Very slippery slope in terms of the use of public funds to prove a point. Think of the bloody murder everyone screened about the power purchase contracts.

[HiTempguy1]

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And who is going to pay the penalty to the refiners who have contracts for firm service on that line?

This isn’t China or Saudi Arabia, all of this infrastructure is run by independent corporations who have obligations to producers and refiners to shop their product and if you want to force them to do something you better be ready to pay through the nose for that privilege.

Very slippery slope in terms of the use of public funds to prove a point. Think of the bloody murder everyone screened about the power purchase contracts.

Gov is going to pay regardless. Both NDP and UCP are onboard for spending our money in this case. Oh, and remember the Liberals bailing out Bombardier? They can toss some of Canada's cash our way to get the pipeline built.

And while I don't agree with having the govs spend that money, this is what KMX has to say about its value:

"By increasing Canada’s capacity to get resources to market, producers will see $73.5 billion in increased revenues over 20 years. Federal and provincial governments will see $46.7 billion in additional taxes and royalties from construction and 20 years of operation, higher producer revenues and additional tanker traffic."

So if that is the case, this is one of the few times I am willing to have gov spend money on this. The barn doors have long been blasted open, this is our reality.

Ideals are great, but if something isn't done, we aren't just a little fucked, but quite fucked. Its a situation which has been allowed to get too far gone. There is no way to bounce back from this, the gov has already offered financial support. As a company, KMX would be stupid not to take it. As a province, we'd be stupid not to put on our big boy pants and hit them, hard.

Winning is relative. Nobody "wins" here, but BC needs to be shown it can't get away with it. I assure you, if gas hits $2/L, the NDP and green coalition will cave. Just like the BC wine deal, it does't have to be months upon months. It needs to be a huge, hard decisive hit.

Edit-
And this all loops back to ideals. If we operated purely on the basis of idealogical basis, Alberta would have left Canada long ago. If TransMountain doesn't go through... Well, one can dream that maybe it will kick start something.

[J-hop]

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Several grassroots organizations have decided to organize rallies in Calgary (April 10) and Edmonton (April 12) to show support for the project.

Calgary – April 10, 2018 from 4pm – 6pm
Location: McDougall Centre (455 6th Street SW)
https://www.facebook.com/events/2031764033701991/

Edmonton – April 12, 2018 from 4pm – 6pm
Location: Alberta Legislature Building (10800 97 Ave NW)
https://www.facebook.com/events/207017413234758/

Holy hell they clogged downtown. Was late to a meeting at 5:30 because these guys were everywhere.

Protesting is pretty silly IMO. Regardless what side you’re on nothing intellectual or rational comes out of protests....

[HiTempguy1]

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Gov is going to pay regardless.

Trudeau really working the ol' brain hard on this one. I think he sees it as a win to bribe Albertans with fed money.

http://nationalpost.com/news/politic...th-pm-notley-3

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he has instructed his finance minister to enter negotiations with Kinder Morgan to “remove the uncertainty” hanging over the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project.

So Kinder Morgan gets risk free financing/ability to make the pipeline, Trudeau gets to spread his government graft around and severely diminish the idea he only caters to Ontario and Quebec, and some Albertans will legitimately view this as him having Alberta's best interests at heart.

The taxpayer loses, and confederation still has major problems pasted over by spending our money for a temporary fix for one single project. Yay.

[Feruk]

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So Kinder Morgan gets risk free financing/ability to make the pipeline, Trudeau gets to spread his government graft around and severely diminish the idea he only caters to Ontario and Quebec, and some Albertans will legitimately view this as him having Alberta's best interests at heart.

The taxpayer loses, and confederation still has major problems pasted over by spending our money for a temporary fix for one single project. Yay.

I see two alternatives. The first is the government provides some "insurance" (not financing) to the project. I'd be shocked if KMI would be ok giving up an interest in the project for cash. The second alternative is Kinder Morgan walks away and then turns right around and sues both the federal and provincial governments to the tune of over $1B. Kinda similar to what TCPL did against the US for blocking Keystone XL. That's an absolute loss.

So realistically, how does the taxpayer lose anything? The government is not putting out any money, but will avoid a major lawsuit they'd lose, and likely make billions in tax revenue later. Also, even if they were to take an equity piece, I'd support that as well. Sure is better to have an equity in a financially sound project that'll generate a ROR than in Trudeau's "social infrastructure" spending bullshit.

[HiTempguy1]

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So realistically, how does the taxpayer lose anything?

You said it yourself, KMX sues the gov. That's our money. And the taxpayer "loses" is what I said. Regardless of anything, government backing private industry is the sort of bullshit that needs to stop. Is this a SPECIAL case? Yes, I'd say it is. The pipeline will clearly be profitable. But its the ideology of doing it that bugs the crap out of me. Like I said, this will be spun to everyone as "the Liberals care about Alberta" and the east will be able to hold it over us that we get the same treatment as them.

Or, the pipeline goes ahead and the enviro-crazies block the way and start destroying equipment. And that's not a hypothetical. These people are fucking crazy, and will do exactly this. So unless the Feds are willing to send the RCMP or military in, good luck with that. There will be lawsuits, and investment in O&G will completely dry up. I honestly just don't think this pipeline is getting built.

[ExtraSlow]

Financial Post says KXL and Line 3 very likely to go ahead. Honestly, we could make good use of all three of these pipes. Always good to have options for transportation in terms of destination markets, and the physical infrastructure. Also, It's not crazy to think that sometime int eh next decade we will see legacy capacity reduced due to age/corrosion or damage. I assume from first shovels in the ground it would be 24 months or so to get these big projects operational? That sound right to the smarter pipeline people?

http://business.financialpost.com/co...asingly-likely

[Buster]

What a dumb idea by our collective idiots in gov't. If Canada is viewed as a country that can only get projects approved if they are nationalized, then capital will dry up faster than it already is.

[ExtraSlow]

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What a dumb idea by our collective idiots in gov't. If Canada is viewed as a country that can only get projects approved if they are nationalized, then capital will dry up faster than it already is.

I agree. Availability of capital isn't an issue, it's the very quantifiable risk that doesn't exist in other jurisdictions. Even if we view what the governments propose as some for of "free insurance", that just highlights that the risks are truly much higher here.

Anyone who wanted a more diversified economy is getting their wish.

[killramos]

I think showing that our country is run by special interest minorities is more of a recipe for no economy than it is for a diversified economy.

Race to the bottom.

Sure makes the NEB’s regulatory process look like a waste of time if every industrial project is just going to go to the Supreme Court for a couple years anyways.

Why bother with a regulatory body, might as well just dive straight into judicial review.

[suntan]

Trudeau: "Alberta will get money for TM."

Quebec: "Federal money and we're not getting any?! Fuck you!"

[jltabot]

Talks must've not gone as planned yesterday..? I.e. Trudeau couldn't do shit haha

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...-war-1.4622165

[ExtraSlow]

Need bullets in the gun if you are going to wave it around. No point blindly trusting Justin to save Alberta. Need to have some ability to act on our own.

[nzwasp]

Has Kenney said what he would of done differently to handle this problem?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[suntan]

B.C. NDP are only in power because of the Green Party.

[Gestalt]

This pipeline is going to the supreme court and will never be built.

I have a crisp $100 for any takers.