Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[ExtraSlow]

For sure, places with lower population density are going to come out of this better, IF, IF, IF they take the same precautions. I'll bet there are some small towns really hit hard because of a lack of compliance with precautions.

[jutes]

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For sure, places with lower population density are going to come out of this better, IF, IF, IF they take the same precautions. I'll bet there are some small towns really hit hard because of a lack of compliance with precautions.

Have you been washing your hands? There is this idea of a curve or something, supposed to straighten it, but wash your hands. Keep a distance on socialists while washing your curved hands.

But seriously, wash your hands in case you were under a rock for the last 4 weeks.

[Kg810]

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I’m really trying hard to understand how that article has anything to do with Elon Musk.

Elon created Google.

[ExtraSlow]

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Elon created Google.

I think, not?

[The_Rural_Juror]

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...

Thank you.

[nzwasp]

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I think, not?

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[Antonito]

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I can't fucking wait till they start doing that widespread, it's the key to restarting our economy as far as my little mind understands.

that and getting enough ventilators, beds and PPE for hospital staff that we don’t end up with scenes on the news like Italy. I don’t know what the line is for “acceptable amount of deaths”, but a real deal breaker for most everyone is the idea of doctors having to pick who lives and who dies and mass graves. I think with Canada that capacity will probably come before the testing does though

[Buster]

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that and getting enough ventilators, beds and PPE for hospital staff that we don’t end up with scenes on the news like Italy. I don’t know what the line is for “acceptable amount of deaths”, but a real deal breaker for most everyone is the idea of doctors having to pick who lives and who dies and mass graves. I think with Canada that capacity will probably come before the testing does though

There will be a really narrow strip of real-estate between mitigation/avoidance-of-exponential-growth, economic activity, and healthcare capacity.

We have a couple of advantages over places like Italy:

- we bent the curve before catastrophe largely based on observing their nightmare.
- we have the ability to develop capacity and policies to handle the hospitalizations
- we will be able to develop systems to test and contract trace much more effectively

Italy, Spain and even NY did not have the opportunity to implement any of these things before the SHTF.

We WILL have to get used to a certain death rate. In fact there will be an optimal death rate. There always is an optimal death rate for any type of death: car accidents, plane accidents, suicides, etc. This will be just more visible. As you say, the really toxic thing for the public is the idea of [triage deaths. For some reason, these deaths are hugely traumatic for the public psyche. We're just not a generation that is used to it.

I think we will get small scale virus deployment by the end of the year.

[xrayvsn]

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Anyone else disappointed that the Alberta government has grouped Calgary as a whole in the Covid-19 map?
I liked having the different areas of the city broken down like it was an election.

My suspicion is that as the number of cases increase, it is taking too many resources to update the numbers for each quadrant. Those people responsible for updating these numbers in the public health department are better deployed doing contact tracing of the new cases, so it makes sense that they would simply consolidate the numbers into larger geographic groups.

[ExtraSlow]

It's also counterproductive to show too much granularity because it's unlikely to paint a true picture of a chaotic set of numbers.

[Kg810]

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[Xtrema]

AHS projection is 800k infected and 3100 deaths by end of summer.

Sounds to me hand sanitizer, mask, and social distancing will be here for a long time.

[ExtraSlow]

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AHS projection is 800k infected and 3100 deaths by end of summer.

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but that sounds pretty reasonable.

[Buster]

I'm not sure. 20% of the AB population infected at a 0.3% death rate?

Maybe.

[ExtraSlow]

I had heard somewhere early in this mess that we should expect 70-80% infections. Maybe that was always bullshit, I don't know but that stuck in my head.

[90_Shelby]

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Elon created Google.

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[Xtrema]

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I had heard somewhere early in this mess that we should expect 70-80% infections. Maybe that was always bullshit, I don't know but that stuck in my head.

Qualification is by end of summer. We will probably hit 70% by end of the year.

I just hope Sweden stay the course and get their population infected as fast as possible so we can compare notes next year.

[AndyL]

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My suspicion is that as the number of cases increase, it is taking too many resources to update the numbers for each quadrant. Those people responsible for updating these numbers in the public health department are better deployed doing contact tracing of the new cases, so it makes sense that they would simply consolidate the numbers into larger geographic groups.

No more likely they're trying to stop panic based movement. If the chart showed 50% of forest lawn had it people would be GTFOing - and further spreading it around Calgary and area. They want to conceal that information to prevent that chaos.

The reserves are being quietly called up and are getting mobilized... If you're wanting to relocate - you're running out of time.

[ExtraSlow]

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Qualifications is by end of summer. We will probably hit 70% by end of the year.

So fall is going to be worse than spring and summer? Fucking hell.

[xrayvsn]

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I had heard somewhere early in this mess that we should expect 70-80% infections. Maybe that was always bullshit, I don't know but that stuck in my head.

That number is assuming R0 of about 4.0, with complete mixing of the population. It is very difficult to estimate R0 in the midst of a pandemic, since we don’t truly know the number of infected, only the number of positive tests. As many have pointed out, widespread serologic testing will be the next phase in our recovery from this and give use a better idea of not only how widespread this is in our population, severity of illness and will help guide future public health measures needed to blunt a secondary or tertiary wave.