Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19)

[schurchill39]

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...klog-1.5813847

One of the updates last week have a pie chart and I'm sure it was like 45-50% unknown... obviously gotten worse then that. Also sounds like they just scrapped a bunch of contract tracing as they can't keep up. cool!

I think a lot of people are misunderstanding what they mean by "unknown" sources. They are unknown because of two major reason. The first is a lot of these people are out and about visiting a ton of people and going to all sorts of stores, restaurants, gyms etc just living their best lives. This makes it impossible to say where its coming from because people either aren't tracking where they are going or just going to so many establishments and places that you could never peg where they got it from. The second is a growing wave of people not wanting to cooperate with contact tracers. If they lie, or refuse to share the information there is no way to trace it.

I'm going to stay away from the other discussion points on these threads because shit is getting hostile but this is a super easy one to stop the misinformation of "the government is dumb and doesn't even know where its coming from". The only reason they don't know is because we as a population suck.

EDIT: Not saying that that was your take from your post, just the general feeling people seem to have about such a large percentage being unknown.

[Tik-Tok]

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So the announcement is today at 4:30, right? What's the guess on lockdown measures here in Alberta? Full blown like March? Just the tip? What are you thinking?

My guess is the similar to April. Personal services closed, stores at limited capacity, restaurants takeout only.

[rage2]

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...klog-1.5813847

One of the updates last week have a pie chart and I'm sure it was like 45-50% unknown... obviously gotten worse then that. Also sounds like they just scrapped a bunch of contract tracing as they can't keep up. cool!

Yea, so no detailed data. Was hoping for some to look at.

[Buster]

I really don't think we have the ability to determine where spread is occurring, or if there is sufficient trends to determine. The spread is probably pretty diverse at this point.

We might never know.

[rage2]

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I think a lot of people are misunderstanding what they mean by "unknown" sources. They are unknown because of two major reason. The first is a lot of these people are out and about visiting a ton of people and going to all sorts of stores, restaurants, gyms etc just living their best lives. This makes it impossible to say where its coming from because people either aren't tracking where they are going or just going to so many establishments and places that you could never peg where they got it from. The second is a growing wave of people not wanting to cooperate with contact tracers. If they lie, or refuse to share the information there is no way to trace it.

I'm going to stay away from the other discussion points on these threads because shit is getting hostile but this is a super easy one to stop the misinformation of "the government is dumb and doesn't even know where its coming from". The only reason they don't know is because we as a population suck.

EDIT: Not saying that that was your take from your post, just the general feeling people seem to have about such a large percentage being unknown.

There's also #3 unknown group now, they haven't been able to keep up with contact tracing. That's why unknown is at something like 80% now?

[rage2]

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I really don't think we have the ability to determine where spread is occurring, or if there is sufficient trends to determine. The spread is probably pretty diverse at this point.

We might never know.

The only thing we can do is to rely on known data. That's all we have to work with.

[flipstah]

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My guess is the similar to April. Personal services closed, stores at limited capacity, restaurants takeout only.

What's a 'personal service'?

[killramos]

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What's a 'personal service'?

Rub and tugs mostly

[Buster]

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The only thing we can do is to rely on known data. That's all we have to work with.

Well, we have endpoint data (or something resembling it) - how many infections, deaths, etc.

[90_Shelby]

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I don't think I've seen the data published. It's only been what's been said at the updates. Excluding the unknown origin, 40% from private social gathering, <1% for restaurants, <1% for schools. Not sure where the rest of the 58% known cases break down to.


Link? Always curious to see what the known transmission sources are.

Yea, it's hilarious that people are assuming what the unknowns are, like some big conspiracy that the government is hiding the info. You can't make pointless rash decisions based on incomplete data.

The Alberta website does have a list of outbreaks and anytime I've checked it, it is overwhelmingly full of long term care and supportive living sites but this may be due to the quantity of cases required to be defined as an outbreak? Out of the long list, there are only 2 listed as private gatherings despite the repeated argument that this is where the virus is spreading. This data does not state the number of cases or any other demographics at each location either.

Despite the data below and what has been posted in this thread, perhaps the elderly are sneaking out of their rooms after curfew without masks and having private parties where the coronavirus is then spreading? All staff members at these facilities would be wearing masks and following protocols in place, so how else could these seniors be getting sick and dying at these locations? We need stronger penalties and enforcement for these seniors! Or maybe we should lockdown these care facilities and send the seniors home to be cared for in the private homes of their kids.

On a serious note, who has it worse, teachers at schools or care workers at seniors facilities?

But as several continue to remind us, this is not a virus that only affects seniors, we're all in this together and we all need to be diligent equivalently regardless of risk and vulnerability.

https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-albe....aspx#p25721s5

Acute care facilities:

Foothills Medical Centre, Calgary
Peter Lougheed Centre, Calgary
Rockyview General Hospital, Calgary

Long term care facilities:

Bethany, Calgary
Carewest Colonel Belcher, Calgary
Extendicare Hillcrest, Calgary
Intercare Chinook Care Centre, Calgary
The Manor Village Varsity, Calgary
Revera Bow-Crest, Calgary
Revera Mount Royal Long Term Care Home, Calgary
Wentworth Manor (The Residence), Calgary
Wing Kei Care Centre, Calgary

Supportive living/home living sites:

Agecare Skypointe, Calgary
Agecare Walden Heights, Calgary
Amica Aspen Woods, Calgary
Amica Britannia, Calgary
Auburn Heights Retirement Residence, Calgary
Carewest George Boyack, Calgary
CBI Specialized Community Services, Calgary
Extendicare Cedars Villa, Calgary
Glamorgan Care Centre, Calgary
Highbanks Independent Living for Parenting Youth Society, Calgary
Holy Cross Manor, Calgary
Prince of Peace Manor, Calgary
Rehoboth Christian Ministries Group Home, Calgary
Sage Hill Retirement Residence, Calgary
Simon House Recovery Centre, Calgary
Spruce Lodge, Calgary
St. Marguerite Manor, Calgary
Staywell Manor, Calgary
Supported Lifestyles Group Home, Calgary
The Journey Club, Calgary
United Living at Fish Creek, Calgary
Vecova Group Home, Calgary
Waverley House Personal Care Home, Calgary

Other facilities and settings:

Airdrie Boxing Club
Airdrie Martial Arts Centre
Amazon warehouse, Rocky View County
Calgary Alpha House, Francis Manor
Calgary Correctional Centre
Calgary Drop-In Centre
Calgary Remand Centre
Cargill Case Ready, Calgary
CBI (Prestwick location), Calgary
Centennial Foodservice, Calgary
Chestermere Lake Crossfit, Chestermere
CIBC Sunridge Corner, Calgary
Constant Fire Protection Systems Ltd., Calgary
Dafco, Calgary
Dr. Clara Christie Learning Centre Daycare, Calgary
Goodfood Market, Calgary
Harmony Beef, Rocky View County
Hunter Logistics Ltd., Calgary
Kal Tire (6607 MacleodTrail SW), Calgary
King of Glory Chapel, Calgary
Little Angels Daycare, Airdrie
Merlin Plastics, Calgary
Metrie Canada, Calgary
Private gathering, Calgary
Private gathering, Chestermere
Provision Analytics Inc., Calgary
Real Canadian Superstore (3633 Westwinds Dr. NE), Calgary
Sheldon M. Chumir iOAT program, Calgary
Sport cohorts (2), Calgary
Walmart Logistics, Calgary
West Springs Veterinary Hospital, Calgary

[Cagare]

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Lol.... Yeah...

https://globalnews.ca/news/7462454/c...tion-november/

Much like most of the reporting right now there is no context for that number. As a matter of scale that's 4% of the student/staff population isolating. In most cases with high schools and junior highs it is because a student is exposed to several teachers, which all have their own homeroom create a domino effect for a single exposure and then moving that specific school to online only for most of the population because they cannot get enough guest teachers to fill in. There are a few instances of this. It doesn't take too many schools to go full online to reach 8,000. There has been a guest teacher shortage in Calgary for over a decade to top it off.

I still fully believe that there is more control to a classroom environment than most of these kids staying at home, particularly in the junior grades. Also, the ability for parents to continue working largely depends on the schools and daycares being open.

[Tik-Tok]

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What's a 'personal service'?

Massage, hair salons/barbers, tattoo parlours etc.

[max_boost]

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I'll bet 18-24 age. This is like prohibition and those people are out drinking and fucking. Regulations go out the window when there are customers lined up to pay for your illegal nightclub, or whatever.

Have any of them got deathly ill yet? I presume they would tweet/gram their experience right lol

[rage2]

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I'll bet 18-24 age. This is like prohibition and those people are out drinking and fucking. Regulations go out the window when there are customers lined up to pay for your illegal nightclub, or whatever.

18-40 I think is the biggest group in terms of positive cases now IIRC.

[duaner]

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18-40 I think is the biggest group in terms of positive cases now IIRC.

I'm sure I read that a couple of weeks ago from Hinshaw. Anecdotally, the daughter of some friends of ours recently became a nurse at a hospital in the lower mainland. A few weeks ago she said that the COVID ward, where she started working, was full of 20- and 30-somethings.



An interesting article:

'Dr. Raj Bhardwaj, a Calgary physician, says those statistics don’t tell the whole story and some of the most common comorbidities in those who have died of COVID-19 are conditions that hundreds of thousands of Albertans have.

“People die of COVID-19, not of their comorbidities,” Dr. Bhardwaj said.

“If you’re crossing the street and somebody hits you with their car, we don’t say ‘oh, it’s okay, that person had diabetes’. It’s the car hitting you that kills you,” he said.

“It’s important to understand that it’s the COVID-19 hitting you that killed you.”'

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/severe-ou...shaw-1.5201845

[Xtrema]

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An interesting article:

'Dr. Raj Bhardwaj, a Calgary physician, says those statistics don’t tell the whole story and some of the most common comorbidities in those who have died of COVID-19 are conditions that hundreds of thousands of Albertans have.

“People die of COVID-19, not of their comorbidities,” Dr. Bhardwaj said.

“If you’re crossing the street and somebody hits you with their car, we don’t say ‘oh, it’s okay, that person had diabetes’. It’s the car hitting you that kills you,” he said.

“It’s important to understand that it’s the COVID-19 hitting you that killed you.”'

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/severe-ou...shaw-1.5201845

Dr Raj is sick of that narrative too.

[pheoxs]

My guess is we roll back to the original phase 2. Gyms/fitness closed, restaurants takeout only, offices suggested to WFH where possible, personal services closed, social gatherings cut down to 5 people, weddings/funerals/worships reduced in size.

My guess.

[duaner]

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My guess is we roll back to the original phase 2. Gyms/fitness closed, restaurants takeout only, offices suggested to WFH where possible, personal services closed, social gatherings cut down to 5 people, weddings/funerals/worships reduced in size.

My guess.

It shouldn't take more than that if they actually enforce it all.

[Disoblige]

I'm glad I cancelled my monthly parking once November is over.

[ThePenIsMightier]

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My guess is we roll back to the original phase 2. Gyms/fitness closed, restaurants takeout only, offices suggested to WFH where possible, personal services closed, social gatherings cut down to 5 people, weddings/funerals/worships reduced in size.

My guess.

My guess as well.
Let's see what the Wheel Of Rollbacks lands on!