Putin vs Ukraine.

[Masked Bandit]

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7.2 double meat subs

Are double meat subs the new Beyond currency?

[Darell_n]

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Are double meat subs the new Beyond currency?

Not if you have to ask. Haha

[JRSC00LUDE]

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Are double meat subs the new Beyond currency?

Been the de facto Beyond Benjamin through several booms.

[Xtrema]

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So the USA is going to give planes to Poland so Poland can give some other planes to Ukraine. TIL warplanes are a fungible commodity.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistoria...in_in_1940_by/

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Not a bad way to get a free upgrade. Sent in old soviet planes, get some F-35 in return. Hope they read the fine print before they unload all that into Ukraine to be shot down.

NVM: I did't know it's a MIG for western fighters in the deal.

Now all that's missing now is some mysterious explosion in NATO country to justify article 5.

[Buster]

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https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistoria...in_in_1940_by/



I bet it'll be F16s or Mirage 2000s. Probably something from the 70s era that goes on suicide mission.


Now all that's missing now is some mysterious explosion in NATO country to justify article 5.

Nobody with any pull wants nato to go to war with Russia. It's not going to happen.

[Xtrema]

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Nobody with any pull wants nato to go to war with Russia. It's not going to happen.

Northrop Grumman disagrees.

[Buster]

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Northrop Grumman disagrees.

Says who

[Xtrema]

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Says who

Ok Haliburton then. Someone always profits from conflicts.

[Buster]

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Ok Haliburton then. Someone always profits from conflicts.

I thought you said it was going to be article 5

[Xtrema]

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I thought you said it was going to be article 5

A state sponsor terrorism event that a NATO country allows to happen to create Pearl Harbor / 9/11.

[Buster]

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A state sponsor terrorism event that a NATO country allows to happen to create Pearl Harbor / 9/11.

So Halliburton is going to blow up a bomb in Estonia and every Western nation is going to go all in on ww3?

[tonytiger55]

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The only way to end this is through China mediating. Xi would have to come in, and present a compromise to both sides, Putin saves face (somehow), Ukraine makes some concessions, "Russian-Chinese eternal friendship", China gains diplomatic stature.

The problem is the sanctions have destroyed Russia's economy, so even if that happens, you don't just go back to 2 weeks ago.

I was thinking. Putin is 69. Average life expectacy for males in Le Soviet is about 73. Its roughly 78 in the west. It might be longer for Putin as he gets to eat fresh caviar from the Black sea. But how much longer does he have? His term in the Kremlin is until 2024. Then what..? His postion might be untenable by then. I think sanctions will cripple the economy but that takes time. Can Putin be ousted if the war gets dragged on..? War looses its momentum with the public. That might be a strategy for the west to topple him.

Whoever his sucessor is. They will have job of cleaning up his mess. What a mess it is. They might make a move on him sooner than later.

[Xtrema]

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So Halliburton is going to blow up a bomb in Estonia and every Western nation is going to go all in on ww3?

I don't see a way out if China and India are granted exclusive access to resources in Russia and Ukraine. The economic sanction means we are all in unless there is a Russian coup that topple Putin and get back to business as usual.

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They might make a move on him sooner than later.

If someone can make a move on him, would have done it already.

[Buster]

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I don't see a way out if China and India are granted exclusive access to resources in Russia and Ukraine. The economic sanction means we are all in unless there is a Russian coup that topple Putin and get back to business as usual.

Economic sanctions are not inevitably followed by a hot war between the West and Russia

[ExtraSlow]

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I was thinking. Putin is 69

nice.


No but seriously, I don't think it's at all certain that removing Putin from power by force improves anything. He's not some lone wolf madman, he's actually pretty popular and is generally in line with others in positions of power in Russia.

Thinking that the west can "regime change" their way out of this is kinda crazy.

[Sentry]

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nice.


No but seriously, I don't think it's at all certain that removing Putin from power by force improves anything. He's not some lone wolf madman, he's actually pretty popular and is generally in line with others in positions of power in Russia.

Thinking that the west can "regime change" their way out of this is kinda crazy.

It always worked in the past. Wait, fuck.

[Xtrema]

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Thinking that the west can "regime change" their way out of this is kinda crazy.

Then I can't see how this ends than isolation of Russia/Ukraine permanently.

[Buster]

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Then I can't see how this ends than isolation of Russia/Ukraine permanently.

there are a variety of endpoints here. No one knows what they will be. None of them are good.

[tonytiger55]

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nice.


No but seriously, I don't think it's at all certain that removing Putin from power by force improves anything. He's not some lone wolf madman, he's actually pretty popular and is generally in line with others in positions of power in Russia.

Thinking that the west can "regime change" their way out of this is kinda crazy.

Fair point.
I don't think the west can do regime change directly, but they certainly can put the condtions in to get the ball rolling. Putin is not going to be around by 2030 thats my bet. If he is, he won't be fully coherent and or the grim reaper will get him. Russian life expectancy dictates that.



Now, what opportunites are there for the west when a new leader is in place with its economy in tatters?

If we look at this from a Micro and Macro level. A family falls into dysfunction when there is no clear transition of power. For example if a head of a household dies, throw in poverty and you have a mess. The next person in that family is too busy dealing with internal issues of that family to fully deal with the external. I know, Ive dealt with estates when clients have passed.
If we look at it on a Macro level, empires have fallen because of this. The Mughal empire started to fall in 1739, there was no transition of power or planning when the Emperors passed. Security fell and banditry was rife. The only group that was orgazied and could provide security was the British East India Company. We all know what happened after that.
Putin does not have that long really. I dont think Russa will collapse, but its sucessor will have to rebuild relationships and the economy. Thats a tall order.

Then again, this reminds me a scene from the Die Hard movie. When the guy is trying to unlock all the keys to the safe and asks Hans... 'the last one is going to take a miracle...' the FBI cuts the power and it works in the favour of the terrorists...'Theo you ask for miracles I give you the F.B.I....'
The same thing could happen here.. Russian commanders are saying to Putin... this is going to take a miracle and then boom, Biden has a heart attack. Putin laughs and says... 'Sergie...you ask for miracles.. I give you Kamala Harris...' muhahahahaha.

[ragu]

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there are a variety of endpoints here. No one knows what they will be. None of them are good.

I’m hoping he brings west to negotiations and they back off the weapons from Russian porch and peace returns. If NATO hasn’t poked Russia, we’d be living in a less inflationary world :p