Calgary real estate prospects

[killramos]

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This is true. It would take incredible circumstances for an established developer to lose their shirt... like there's almost no way.

Presumably they are leveraged heavily enough that even a couple year delay would hurt pretty bad no?

[Neil4Speed]

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Is there really going to be a net migration out though? Even in 2019 we still had a influx of people, it was only 2020 that we finally had more people leaving than coming here but considering covid and work from home / work remotely that sorta makes sense. At the end of the day although our unemployment is higher we still have higher wages than elsewhere in Canada.

That's some of the guidance that I have seen. With the high unemployment, I don't see why unemployed folks would stay, and I don't know why that would be appealing for those to move here. I will say that oil at US $60 will help produce some stability

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Well said. It's been hypothesized that newer generations are going to slowly leave the province because there isn't a lot keeping them here.

I can understand that thought as well.

As an aside, I have heard about some bidding wars and C/S within days for houses in the 400-600 range over the past few weeks. Inventory is generally low and the quality of inventory has been low (personal perception)

[msommers]

Bidding wars in that price range have been going on since covid started, according to my mortgage guy at Scotia. He's also been looking in that range and said it's been a challenge to find something without feeling like you're over paying.

[finboy]

20-something singles will leave, I suspect more 30-something family’s will come to calgary. Outside of Vancouver, there aren’t many other options in the west, Toronto and Vancouver are outright unaffordable, and calgary is seeing some opportunities outside oil and gas. Anecdotal, my friends group is 30-something, tech and finance/acct side of o&g, I’ve been laid off twice in the downturn but pivoted. I’m the only one in my group who got hit, everyone else has found stability and a new normal, they’ve adapted to either the lower salaries in o&g, or moved into tech where there are lots of opportunities at a rate about 20-30% below o&g. If I rented a condo in Vancouver and made 150k household with my wife, and wanted a family, it’s not a stretch to see calgary as a place to move. You can live a pretty burby life here on $150k, and I think it is still very possible to find jobs to support that.

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ftfy

Sadly more likely

[RX_EVOLV]

One of our tenants just decided to pack everything up and move east. The girl works in marketing and the guy in Fort Mac. Decided no future in Alberta so the girl found another marketing job in Ontario and the guy will just figure it out once he gets there.

[Manhattan]

Alberta is full. Ppl finally realizing and moving out...

[gwill]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...tion-1.4094583

For those asking about developers going bankrupt. Here was a semi recent case.

[Buster]

were they a developer or a ponzy scheme?

[JohnnyHockey13]

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20-something singles will leave, I suspect more 30-something family’s will come to calgary. Outside of Vancouver, there aren’t many other options in the west, Toronto and Vancouver are outright unaffordable, and calgary is seeing some opportunities outside oil and gas. Anecdotal, my friends group is 30-something, tech and finance/acct side of o&g, I’ve been laid off twice in the downturn but pivoted. I’m the only one in my group who got hit, everyone else has found stability and a new normal, they’ve adapted to either the lower salaries in o&g, or moved into tech where there are lots of opportunities at a rate about 20-30% below o&g. If I rented a condo in Vancouver and made 150k household with my wife, and wanted a family, it’s not a stretch to see calgary as a place to move. You can live a pretty burby life here on $150k, and I think it is still very possible to find jobs to support that.



Sadly more likely

Exactly this.

We don't have kids and I'm looking to move out to Vancouver for a lifestyle change (will be selling our <$450,000 single detached home then). If we had kids though, Calgary is awesome for raising kids if you even make just average salary. My buddy back in Van with 2 kids and dual incomes (at least $175K/yr combined) paid some ridiculous amount for some tiny townhouse. He could've moved to Calgary and bought a 2000+ sq ft house for a measly $500,000 (by Vancouver standards that's measly for a big house). And here, there is ALOT less trouble for your kids to get into. I would NEVER raise kids in Vancouver given the huge drug/gang problems (I grew up there myself and was glad my mother was strict and kept me away from all that).

That being said, we'll be paying probably $3,500 a month in Vancouver for rent (we have 3 small dogs)....and sitting on the sidelines praying for market crash in Van OR Calgary.

[bjstare]

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...tion-1.4094583

For those asking about developers going bankrupt. Here was a semi recent case.

And the last line in the article:

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Walton International Group is made up of hundreds of entities incorporated or established in Canada, the U.S. and Germany. Entities in the U.S., Europe and Asia are not part of the current legal proceedings.

tl;dr, they got burned, but no way is this ever going to send the private owners to the poor house. They'll just spin up another spiderweb of companies next time and do it all over again.

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were they a developer or a ponzy scheme?

Is there a difference?

[Manhattan]

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That being said, we'll be paying probably $3,500 a month in Vancouver for rent (we have 3 small dogs)....and sitting on the sidelines praying for market crash in Van OR Calgary.

When everybody praying for a market crash it aint gonna happen. The less patient will pay up as soon as it dips 5 or 10%. The only catalyst for a major correction is if inflation picks up and people start defaulting on their mortgages in which case you know the govt will step in somehow to keep people happy.

[gwill]

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were they a developer or a ponzy scheme?

I've heard rumors along those lines.

[mr2mike]

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When everybody praying for a market crash it aint gonna happen. The less patient will pay up as soon as it dips 5 or 10%. The only catalyst for a major correction is if inflation picks up and people start defaulting on their mortgages in which case you know the govt will step in somehow to keep people happy.

The other side of that inflation coin is when this starts, people move their money to tangible goods like housing to protect themselves.

[Manhattan]

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The other side of that inflation coin is when this starts, people move their money to tangible goods like housing to protect themselves.

If inflations picks up steam people sure as hell aren't gonna buy assets like houses. You buy banks or insurance stocks that make their margin on higher rates or businesses that can pass on inflation to their customers. People will be selling real estate because they can't afford to renew mortgages on >5% interest and/or it no longer makes sense to keep rental property at a much higher interest rate. Housing and interest rates have a negative correlation.

[Rocket1k78]

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20-something singles will leave, I suspect more 30-something family’s will come to calgary. Outside of Vancouver, there aren’t many other options in the west, Toronto and Vancouver are outright unaffordable, and calgary is seeing some opportunities outside oil and gas. Anecdotal, my friends group is 30-something, tech and finance/acct side of o&g, I’ve been laid off twice in the downturn but pivoted. I’m the only one in my group who got hit, everyone else has found stability and a new normal, they’ve adapted to either the lower salaries in o&g, or moved into tech where there are lots of opportunities at a rate about 20-30% below o&g. If I rented a condo in Vancouver and made 150k household with my wife, and wanted a family, it’s not a stretch to see calgary as a place to move. You can live a pretty burby life here on $150k, and I think it is still very possible to find jobs to support that.

There will be people leaving no doubt but theres gonna be lots coming im sure. Calgarys the only real affordable place to live thats still a nice city to live in.

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Exactly this.

We don't have kids and I'm looking to move out to Vancouver for a lifestyle change (will be selling our <$450,000 single detached home then). If we had kids though, Calgary is awesome for raising kids if you even make just average salary. My buddy back in Van with 2 kids and dual incomes (at least $175K/yr combined) paid some ridiculous amount for some tiny townhouse. He could've moved to Calgary and bought a 2000+ sq ft house for a measly $500,000 (by Vancouver standards that's measly for a big house). And here, there is ALOT less trouble for your kids to get into. I would NEVER raise kids in Vancouver given the huge drug/gang problems (I grew up there myself and was glad my mother was strict and kept me away from all that).

That being said, we'll be paying probably $3,500 a month in Vancouver for rent (we have 3 small dogs)....and sitting on the sidelines praying for market crash in Van OR Calgary.

My buddy did the same as you about 5 years ago, his job offered him a new position in calgary or vancouver(vancouver was paying him less $25k too) so he took the vancouver. Came from edmonton and rented a shit hole bachelor near the nice ocean front cactus club for $1800/month. FFWD to last year he bought his own place and it was $775k for a 700sq/ft 1 bedroom and trying to start a family

[bjstare]

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There will be people leaving no doubt but theres gonna be lots coming im sure. Calgarys the only real affordable place to live thats still a nice city to live in.


My buddy did the same as you about 5 years ago, his job offered him a new position in calgary or vancouver(vancouver was paying him less $25k too) so he took the vancouver. Came from edmonton and rented a shit hole bachelor near the nice ocean front cactus club for $1800/month. FFWD to last year he bought his own place and it was $775k for a 700sq/ft 1 bedroom and trying to start a family

Calgary is the only nice affordable city to live in
.....
My buddy chose Van over calgary, despite higher COL and lower salary, and is starting a family there.


Your anecdote undermines your opinion, pick a lane

[ercchry]

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Calgary is the only nice affordable city to live in
.....
My buddy chose Van over calgary, despite higher COL and lower salary, and is starting a family there.


Your anecdote undermines your opinion, pick a lane

I didn’t get much sleep... but I’m still comprehending what he said? TLDR: his friend has all ragrets

[Rocket1k78]

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Calgary is the only nice affordable city to live in
.....
My buddy chose Van over calgary, despite higher COL and lower salary, and is starting a family there.


Your anecdote undermines your opinion, pick a lane

The trick is to read them as 2 separate post, you'll notice i posted a reply to each quote instead of lumping it all together like you did.
TLDR: Calgary is the the only affordable place to live thats still nice. Vancouver obviously isnt affordable unless you call paying 775k for a 700sqft place affordable

[max_boost]

Agreed calgary is affordable and nice. Ppl can talk a big game without a big salary lol

[Tik-Tok]

Affordable for now. Our shit economy and ever increasing provincial debt is going to hit us hard eventually. I'm predicting PST after the next election is over, with every service still being reduced.