Imminent Housing Crash

[Buster]

Originally posted by GQBalla
Think new home builders are moving on their prices yet?

I have heard yes.

Friend of a friend got $40k off a new buildin Auburn.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

Well, it was imminent.... haha

How's your place coming along bro?

[Buster]

Every passing day I'm more convinced that Canada and Calgary are going to get sideswiped hard with a housing correction.

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by Buster
Every passing day I'm more convinced that Canada and Calgary are going to get sideswiped hard with a housing correction.

Based on what factors??

[Buster]

Originally posted by TomcoPDR


Based on what factors??

1. Macro economic factors - long term global economic health is not going to be moving up any time soon. Trade is collapsing, etc.

2. Energy is going to stay cheap. Really cheap. For a long time.

3. debt/revenue ratios will likely not continue in the same fashion.

4. The public will move from a "housing is a great way to inflate my wealth" mentality to a "housing is a cost" mentality.

5. Canada will not be able to maintain control of its interest rates long term. We're at the mercy of global capital markets much more than we think, and we may not be positively correlated to the US economy forever. In other words, Canadians may become relatively poorer on the global scale, especially compared to Americans. We're seeing this already with out currency.

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by Buster


I have heard yes.

Friend of a friend got $40k off a new buildin Auburn.

Yeah - we were recently looking in Chesteremere at some spec homes, and even the salesperson told us we could get it significantly cheaper and to put in an offer.

[max_boost]

If that's true, great time to buy. could be limited time offer like early 2009 or prolong. Those of you with vision, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by Buster


1. Macro economic factors - long term global economic health is not going to be moving up any time soon. Trade is collapsing, etc.

2. Energy is going to stay cheap. Really cheap. For a long time.

3. debt/revenue ratios will likely not continue in the same fashion.

4. The public will move from a "housing is a great way to inflate my wealth" mentality to a "housing is a cost" mentality.

5. Canada will not be able to maintain control of its interest rates long term. We're at the mercy of global capital markets much more than we think, and we may not be positively correlated to the US economy forever. In other words, Canadians may become relatively poorer on the global scale, especially compared to Americans. We're seeing this already with out currency.

#3 is the scariest I fear too

[Buster]

Originally posted by TomcoPDR


#3 is the scariest I fear too

This is true for corporate equity as well.

The market is starting to signal that low rates are no longer going to prop up the equity markets (which have benefited from leveraging/buybacks at a staggering rate). Corporate bond markets can also reach saturation.

Beware your stock portfolio.

[suntan]

Calgary (and most of Canada) does not build housing like they do in the US.

Down there, virtually every home is a spec house. They build entire neighbourhoods all at once and then the salespeople hope to FSM that they can sell all of the units.

Up here, builders and developers build as units are sold. So when downturns happen, they simply stop building. Works well at preserving capital as well as preventing massive housing crashes due to excess new supply.

[Buster]

I'm not sure new house inventory is a big contributor to a housing crash.

[suntan]

Isn't that what I just said?

[Buster]

Originally posted by suntan
Isn't that what I just said?

I think you said that massive housing crashes can happen due to "excess new supply".

[suntan]

It can be a contributor, yes, in the US. Certainly not here though.

[Buster]

Originally posted by suntan
It can be a contributor, yes, in the US. Certainly not here though.

Not to belabor the point, but you said that it would help in avoiding a crash in Canada.

My point is that it wouldn't be a big factor in Canada. It's not going to have much of an impact on mitigating a crash.

[suntan]

Whatever then. I guess supply has nothing to do with prices.

[riander5]

Did the housing crash happen? Did sugarphreak sell his million dollar bungalo? Will the liberals get elected?

All questions i need answers to

[max_boost]

Housing crash hasn't happened yet lol

No I don't think Sugarphreak sold yet. Honestly I don't think it will at that price. I'll put a $100 bet that it won't sell for more than $999,999.99. Deadline Jan 1, 2016 lol Sorry SP don't be mad at me bro.

I say 50/50 on Liberals getting elected.

[Buster]

Originally posted by suntan
Whatever then. I guess supply has nothing to do with prices.

In a price shock environment?

Not really.

[Buster]

This election is bad news for home values. At least in the short term.