Imminent Housing Crash

[rob the knob]

maybe house sold at auction in summer

then sold again for profit in october

No was only sold once. I know the owner who purchased.

[Buster]

Originally posted by JordanLotoski
^^^

That home actually sold for 1.725m...which in my opinion was pretty fair market.

http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451841014

There is no way even in last years hot market that home would have fetched over 2m

Here is all activity in Hawks Landing..(top sale 1.525m)
http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451848938

All activity in Hawks Nest..(top sale 1.725m)
http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451855790






This is another listing by the same agent who represented the Priddis homes.

6.9 Million dollar price tag
http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451861704

This is that same home today listed with a different agent..at what is now fair market value.

3.7 million dollar price tag.
http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451866776

How in the hell do you miss the asking price by $3 million, or 40 percent or whatever it is. Nuts.

Also: good real estate photographers are amazing. That night shot is awesome compared to the streetview of the thing.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by rob the knob
auction website say home sold for $1,536,015
http://www.conciergeauctions.com/auc...l-1w0/#forward

jordan, do auction listings go through a real estate agent? was this sale reported to MLS? is commission standard for auctions?

Well if the $1.5M doesn't cover auction fee, making it sold for $1.725 will mean an auction fee of ~13%. And I assume bidder must have cash in hand.

Wonder how it'll be taxed. Looks like it was $1300/yr before it was built.

[JordanLotoski]

Originally posted by Xtrema


Well if the $1.5M doesn't cover auction fee, making it sold for $1.725 will mean an auction fee of ~13%.

Correct, 1.725 is fair market...not 4m

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by JordanLotoski


Correct, 1.725 is fair market...not 4m

Well, with over 9200 sq ft total including basement, that's still great bang for bucks compared to everything in the city.

The pure white interior isn't my cup of tea but if I have that much liquid, I won't mind taking the risk on this.

[holden]

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

CREB October YoY Stats - Detached
Average Price down 7.3%
Median Price down 4.7%
Total Sales down 32.4%

[Buster]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...eveloped-world

Money Flooding Out of Canada at Fastest Pace in Developed World
Ari Altstedter
November 1, 2015 — 10:01 PM MST Updated on November 2, 2015 — 7:27 AM MST


Money is flooding out of Canada at the fastest pace in the developed world as the nation’s decade-long oil boom comes to an end and little else looks ready to take the industry’s place as an economic driver.

Canada’s basic balance -- a measure of national accounts that spans everything from trade to financial-market flows -- swung from a surplus of 4.2 percent of gross domestic product to a deficit of 7.9 percent in the 12 months ending in June, according to analysis from Kamal Sharma, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That’s the fastest one-year deterioration among 10 major developed nations.
Change in the Basic Balance
Change in the Basic Balance
More recent data on where companies and mutual-fund investors are putting their money show the trend extended into the second half of the year, suggesting demand for the Canadian dollar and the country’s assets is still ebbing. The currency is already down 11 percent this year, after touching an 11-year low against the U.S. dollar in September.
"This is Canadian investors that are pushing money abroad," said Alvise Marino, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. "The policy in Canada the last 10 years has greatly favored investments in energy. Now the drop in oil prices made all that investment unprofitable."
Crude oil, among the nation’s biggest exports, has collapsed to about half its 2014 peak. The slump has derailed projects this year in Canada’s oil sands -- one of the world’s most expensive crude-producing regions. Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision to put its Carmon Creek drilling project on ice last week lengthened that list to 18, according to ARC Financial Corp.
Foreign Lure
Canadian companies, meanwhile, have been looking abroad for acquisitions. Royal Bank of Canada on Monday closed its $5 billion purchase of Los Angeles-based City National Corp. Monday, its biggest-ever takeover. It’s part of a net outflow of C$73 billion this year for mergers and acquisitions, both completed and announced, according to Credit Suisse data.
Nine of the 10 best-performing companies on the country’s benchmark stock index in the past two years have favored buying growth abroad rather than expanding at home, from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. to convenience-store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
Individuals are following suit. While international appetite for Canadian financial securities has held steady this year, domestic mutual-fund investors have pulled money from Canada-focused funds and plowed it into global choices for six straight months, the longest streak in two years, according to Investment Funds Institute of Canada data compiled by Bank of Montreal.
Loonie Implication
What it all means is the Canadian dollar has to get cheaper still to make Canadian businesses outside of the oil industry competitive enough with foreign peers to make them worth investing in, according to Benjamin Reitzes, an economist at Bank of Montreal.
The median forecast among strategists surveyed by Bloomberg has the loonie weakening to C$1.34 per U.S. dollar by the first three months of next year from about C$1.31 now. The country’s economy is expected to lag behind the U.S., its largest trading partner, for the next two years, according to the median estimate of a separate Bloomberg poll.
While manufacturing and service exports have improved thanks to the Canadian dollar’s depreciation already, they remain below levels from before the financial crisis, according to Royal Bank of Canada foreign-exchange strategist Elsa Lignos. That suggests the country still hasn’t won back the economic capacity it lost, she wrote in an Oct. 29 note.
The country is expected to post its 12th straight merchandise trade deficit this week, according to every economist in a Bloomberg survey.
Given that the loonie was at parity with the U.S. dollar as recently as 2013, overseas companies and investors debating whether to put money into Canada may be waiting to see that the currency stays weak before investing again, according to BMO’s Reitzes.
"Maybe a year from now you don’t have that conversation because it’s been there for a year and you have confidence it’s going to stay there, so you buy that plant or make a new plant in Canada," he said. "It takes time for that currency impact to be felt."

[npham]

Originally posted by JordanLotoski

This is another listing by the same agent who represented the Priddis homes.

6.9 Million dollar price tag
http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451861704

This is that same home today listed with a different agent..at what is now fair market value.

3.7 million dollar price tag.
http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451866776

I drive by this house's for sale sign everyday for months and months, and I was shocked when I saw the original price tag. I knew it would sit and sit at that price.

How long do you figure it will take to sell at the new price Jordan?

[Cos]

.

[Silviawannab]

This was interesting in Vancouver.

“We have homemakers and students listed as buying $2-million to $3-million homes and qualifying for the mortgages.”

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business...#ixzz3qeta8Ty0
/

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Silviawannab
This was interesting in Vancouver.

Read about this when I was out there last week. HSBC is super lax on foreign owner mortgages while TD and RBC are super anal. No idea BMO and CIBC is in this game too.

Since HSBC is a Canadian subsidiary which borrows from BoC, really hope this doesn't burn us in a way or another if the bubble does burst.

[roopi]

Originally posted by Silviawannab
This was interesting in Vancouver.

He determined all of this by 'mainland Chinese sounding names' and 172 sales in Point Grey.

[phreezee]

The average house in Fort McMurray has lost $117,000 or 20% of its in value in one year

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...ue-in-one-year

[Perfect Dark]

Originally posted by phreezee
The average house in Fort McMurray has lost $117,000 or 20% of its in value in one year

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...ue-in-one-year

A friend of mine cashed out a couple of months ago and moved south to work elsewhere...he took a 9% loss but considered himself pretty lucky to just get out period.

[88CRX]

CMHC conference last week doesn't paint a great picture but again it’s not all that bad… the sky is not falling.

- Net migration to Calgary (and Alberta as a whole) will slow down but will still be higher than what it dropped to in 2010 & 2011.

On Pre-Owned Homes:
- Share of sales in upper price range ($600k-$1m+) has declined but share of sales in low/mid price range is going up ($200k-$599k).
- Total MLS sales in 2015-2017 is expected to drop from 2013/14 but will still be higher than 2010-2011.
- Average MLS prices expected to decline in 2015 but rise in 2016 and 2017. Expectation is that 2017 prices will be on target to the higher levels of 2014/early 2015.

On New Homes
- Prices are still expected to increase in 2015, 2016 & 2017 at a more moderate pace
- Inventory levels of new homes is low and new construction starts are also lower.

New Multifamily (townhomes, apartments, etc)
- New construction starts are high. 2015 start are above 10 year average but still below 2014 new starts.
- Inventory levels are creeping up which will moderate new construction starts.
- Most/all home builders are getting slightly nervous so new starts will decline in future years. Again this will keep prices from dropping much.

Rental Market
- Lots of new rental product coming onto the market.
- Vacancy rates are rising.
- No change in average rental costs (due to higher priced, newer product coming on the market). Plus rents never really go down much.

The current inventory levels (of pre-owned and new) isn’t close to what was available on the market back in 08/09 which is helping keep prices somewhat in check. Not a great picture but as this thread calls for there is no ‘IMMINANT’ housing ‘CRASH’ expected in the near future.

Hell you can read all about it here…. Skip to the ‘Calgary Economic and Housing Market Outlook’ at the end. All the stats you need to draw your own opinion.

http://www.cmhc.ca/enews/pdf/calgary_hoc_2015.pdf

[Cos]

.

[max_boost]

Not in Vancouver lol

[A790]

Originally posted by 88CRX

Rental Market
- Lots of new rental product coming onto the market.
- Vacancy rates are rising.
- No change in average rental costs (due to higher priced, newer product coming on the market). Plus rents never really go down much. [/url]

Wat.

When I listed my townhouse for rent back in May all the experts were saying that I should be looking somewhere in the neighbourhood of $1,850.

I check rentfaster almost daily to see what comparable units are listing for. It sure isn't $1,850. It isn't even $1,700. It's about $1,600 right now, though some units are rented lower.

Rents are dropping all right, but they aren't going off a cliff. Rather, it's a slow descent...

[msommers]

Yeah depends how quickly you need it rented. I'd rather take a monthly loss than having it vacant.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by A790

Wat.

When I listed my townhouse for rent back in May all the experts were saying that I should be looking somewhere in the neighbourhood of $1,850.

I check rentfaster almost daily to see what comparable units are listing for. It sure isn't $1,850. It isn't even $1,700. It's about $1,600 right now, though some units are rented lower.

Rents are dropping all right, but they aren't going off a cliff. Rather, it's a slow descent...

On top of that, I have seen 1/2 to 1 month free up front or next to nothing damage deposits. I can't fathom people paying 2014 prices on a 25 yr amortization and try to rent out to be cash positive, or even be profitable.

Are like Evanston listings are popping up like rabbits as I assume either job situation or landlord can't keep it going without rent.